Fantasy Football

-          Since I am competing against many of my readers it is foolish to give away too many likes/dislikes I have concerning the upcoming season.  And I know there are plenty of projections out there to look at.  All I’m going to do is give you some items that stood out to me about NFL players as I was preparing for my fantasy drafts and studying statistics.

1.       Cam Newton and Michael Vick:  Last season Newton had an amazing rookie season with 4,000 yards passing, 700 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, and 14 rushing TDs.  In Vick’s 9 year career here are his highs in the same categories…3,300 yards passing, 1,000 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, and 9 rushing TDs.  Pretty interesting considering they are similar type QBs.  I don’t know if this means Cam is going to have a monster career or if Vick has been highly overrated.

2.       While passing attempts in the NFL are going up as is yardage I don’t expect a similar passing TD trend.  Last year Brees had 46, Rodgers 45, Stafford 41, and Brady 39.  All very nice and many are predicting all 4 to be in the 40s again.  Not so fast my friend.  First, consider that since 1999 there have been only 3 QBs to have 40+ TD seasons before last year.  So I guess you could say that last season was a flash of what’s to come but I don’t think so.  While TDs have stayed consistently in the 30s as a high, attempts and yards have always been climbing.  Second, while each one of those QBs is predicted to throw 40+ TDs it’s interesting to find out that their skill players projections for receiving TDs don’t add up to 40+. 

3.       Drew Brees:  since joining the Saints, Brees has thrown over 600 passes in 4 of the 6 seasons.  To put that in perspective all 4 of those seasons are in the top ten all-time for most passing attempts in a single season.  In other words Brees is a beast when it comes to throwing the ball.  I have to wonder if he will wear out much like RBs seem to.  And get this, the two seasons Brees has been in the 500s for attempts the Saints went to at least the NFC Championship game.  The other 4 years not true.

4.       Tony Romo:  in six seasons as the starter Romo hasn’t started all 16 games in any even numbered calendar year.  Not a great sign for 2012, but also not very concrete info.  Also, Romo has to be one of the most erratic QBs I looked at.  Most guys show steady improvement in completion %.  Romo has been anywhere from 61-69.5% in six seasons and he was 65% six seasons ago.

5.       Mark Sanchez:  I found some statistics on Mark that I think are interesting.  Not that they are good, but Sanchez’s passing yards, passing TDs, and completion % have gone up in each of his 3 seasons.  There’s definite improvement there even though the stats aren’t excellent.  And here’s the kicker.  In his first two seasons he ran for 3 TDs apiece.  Last year…six rushing TDs.  In case you’re wondering that’s pretty high.  In comes Tim Tebow?

6.       Randall Cunningham:  No he’s not making a comeback, but as I was researching I found that Randall was sacked 72 times in one season.  That’s crazy!  It is interesting to know that typically running QBs do get sacked more than traditional pocket passers.

7.       Running Backs:  There is no doubt that RBs are seeing fewer attempts overtime.  The top 10 single season rushing attempts were put in at 2006 or before.  In fact MJD led the league in attempts last year at 364 which sounds like a lot but ranks 64^th all-time.  Consequently rushing yards are not going up either.  In 2009 Chris Johnson went over 2,000 yards, which is a ton and 6^th all-time.  But, last year’s leader MJD ranks 48^th and 2010 leader Foster ranks 45^th. 

8.       Chris Johnson:  Can you or I count on him?  If you look at his stats he’s on the decline at the age of 27.  Granted, he did have an amazing season in 2009 and last year was in a contract dispute until the beginning of the season.  But he did get paid and failed to live up to his check.  Over the last 3 seasons his attempts, yards, TDs, long run, and yards/attempt all are declining.  So he’s either going to bounce back or prove to be finished.

9.       Jamaal Charles:  Yes, he’s coming off an ACL injury.  But here are a couple stats that you may be interested in.  His yards per attempt for his career are this…5.3, 5.9, 6.4, and 6.9.  Now last season doesn’t really count because he only had 12 carries.  But the 6.4 year he had 230 carries.  Now I’m sure he’s not going above 7 yards a carry this year, but even if he goes for a career low of 5 that’s pretty darn good. 

10.   Carolina RBs:  How many RBs does Carolina need?  Goodness!  They have the best running QB in the league, signed a RB last year who led the league in TDs at one point, signed another this year who in the past has had back to back double digit TD seasons, and if that wasn’t enough decided to import another from San Diego who has 19 rush TDs the last two seasons.  Counting on any of these guys to score like they have in the past is dangerous.

11.   Falcon WRs:  This seems obvious but I really like Roddy White and Julio Jones.  Throw Gonzalez in there, who didn’t drop off last year, and Matt Ryan has nice tools to work with.  White and Jones are going to be the Boldin/Fitzgerald or Harrison/Wayne combo from old.  I’d be surprised if both didn’t end up with double digit TDs.

12.   Percy Harvin:  I know this guy plays for the Vikings, but I think he could have a nice year.  He caught 87 passes last year, ran the ball 50 times, and scored on a kickoff return.  Multidimensional.  While he isn’t Calvin Johnson he has gets the ball in a variety of ways.

13.   Jordy Nelson:  15 receiving TDs last year.  You have to really wonder if he can duplicate.  Of course people say no.  But, you still want to give Rodgers 45 TDs like last year.  Who makes up that slack?  Maybe Randall Cobb?  Personally, as stated before, I just drop Rodgers down to above average instead of record area.

-          Well there are 13 notes to Fink About.  Not much I know, but can’t give too much away.  Happy Fantasy Drafts!