For those of you that aren't aware Michael Brandt made a claim pre-season saying the 49ers were "fragile." Once SF lost at home to the Giants a few weeks ago Michael reminded Tyler Greenwood and I of that statement. Tyler and I have never been so sure and after the Thursday night win over Seattle I stated that the 49ers showed that they weren't fragile but had an opportunity to show otherwise trailing at half. An argument ensued, facebook was the forum, and Michael's brother told us to get a room. Of course, after SF's tie yesterday Michael brought up the "fragile" term again. Here is my closing statement on this "fragile" description of the 2012 49ers.
First of all I have to define "fragile." Michael's definition may be different but when I think fragile in sports I think of someone who is mentally weak. When the times get tough the person folds. On top of this mental weakness I think of someone allowing past results to question their self-confidence.
Coming into the season I can see how Kyle Williams a WR for SF would be fragile. He made a key turnover that probably cost SF a Superbowl trip last year. But to say the team was fragile I can't see that. If anything SF started this season with too much confidence. Many experts were picking them to be a superbowl contender and they themselves expected greatness. Their defense was considered one of the best as was their running game and special teams plus their young QB was showing signs of maturity. I do remember Michael bringing up the fact Alex Smith may be fragile since the Niners pursued Peyton Manning briefly. While I can see Michael's point I firmly believe Smith started this season with more confidence than ever before.
Now the season is over half over and the 49ers have been great, good, mediocre, and bad. Smith has been okay but not as good as last season which is a downer for some fans who expected him to continuing to rise. Fragile though? Maybe but not more than any other time in his career that's for sure. The 49ers rush D in particular has given up much more than what I expected. Are they fragile? Maybe but it's probably fans like me that are more fragile than they actually are. David Akers should've won the game yesterday but didn't and hasn't kicked nearly as well as last season. Fragile? I can see it but the guy is nearly 40 if not so and has been cut by his original franchise only to make the All-Pro team. Again I think its the fans that are probably fragile and doubt Akers is rattled.
But let's say the Niners are fragile at this point in the season. If that's true how many other teams are also fragile? I would say quite a few and I would say it changes from week to week or even quarter to quarter. Can the Steelers be fragile after Big Ben went down tonight? What about the Ravens without Ray Lewis? They looked great yesterday. But, as Michael may state, his term was not a game to game term but rather a long term label. So what about New England who has been the #1 seed in the AFC the last two years but failed to win the Superbowl? Are Brady and Belichick fragile? At the very least their defense has to be fragile considering all the heat they've taken over the last 2 years. You could make an argument. Those last 3 teams are some of the best the NFL has to offer. I could easily make a case that over half the NFL teams are fragile. Of course according to my definition.
Lastly I'd like to point out that in this heated argument Michael told Tyler to wait until season's end to determine whether his label was right or wrong. Which seems right I guess but by what standard are you judging them by Michael? What is the rubric you've set up for the 49ers fragility? I haven't asked and am hoping you will tell but my guess is without winning the Superbowl you will declare your label correct. If that's the case then it's a ridiculous standard. Yes, the 49ers have placed the Superbowl or nothing expectation on themselves, but so have 10-12 teams. Are those teams fragile if they don't win the Superbowl? Certainly the 49ers aren't the only team that "experts" picked to win the Superbowl at the beginning of the season. Did the odds makers in Vegas have SF at the top? I doubt it. I'd say the Packers were probably most people's favorite and if they don't win the Superbowl this season it would easy to label them fragile.
Overall do I think the 49ers are fragile? No I don't. When the tough times come, and they will come, I believe the 49ers will compete with their defense, running game, and special teams exactly how Jim Harbaugh wants it. Does that mean they'll win every game? No! Will they get blown out in the playoffs? Maybe. The '86 49ers were smoked in the playoffs, the '87 team choked in the postseason, and the result was back to back Superbowls the next two years. If winning a Superbowl is what it takes to shrug off the label "fragile," then there are a number of teams falling into the category over the history of the NFL. But I would rather simply say those teams weren't good enough and as I predicted at the beginning of the season on this blog site the 49ers will fall into that category.
JFAI
Monday, November 12, 2012
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Presidential Election
Heading away from sports for one post to address the upcoming presidential election. Hey, it only comes along every four years and the winner is one of the world's most influential people so I'll give the situation some attention. Plus I found a neat couple webpages that help me or you to predict the election. And we all know predictions is a big part of this site. To top it off research from past statistics are fueling my predictions and as you all know I love stats.
So here goes my prediction. First of all I hope you are all aware that our president is not elected through the common one vote by every citizen method aka a popular vote. Instead our country long ago chose an electoral method which uses the popular method in a sense. So while I may vote one way or the other, Idaho as a whole only receives 4 votes total while California gets 55. In fact, the whole election is made up of 538 votes. Why do some states get more than others? Population is the answer, again as some of you already know. Hopefully I'll begin sharing with you info that you may not know soon.
Next what I'd like to point out is some states are firmly entrenched in one political party. Take Washington for example. In the last six elections the Democratic candidate has received Washington's electoral votes. The same goes for New York and Oregon. Likewise in each of the last six elections Texas, Idaho, and Alaska have voted for the Republican candidate every time. Also, if you look at how each state voted in the last election based on the popular vote you can learn a lot about this upcoming election. For example, in Kentucky, a state that did elect Clinton, President Obama only received 42% of the vote in '08. Maybe he'll gain the necessary 8% needed but it would be highly unlikely considering he hasn't been overwhelmingly popular in the last 4 years. So I'm thinking states like Kentucky are going with the opposition again. Thus a person can pretty much determine that some of the states will continue their past trends.
That leaves me with states that I would predict as LOCKS. Here they are listed by state, votes, and which candidate they will support.
As you can see President Obama is the clear favorite in the election. I told my classes this week that the Dolphins have as good a chance of winning the Superbowl as Romney does winning the election. If you're not convinced consider all either candidate needs to win is 270 votes and there are 15 states left that aren't on my LOCK status. Now I know I'm not an expert so I may be way off base but a red delicious is almost certainly RED.
Moving on to the other 15 states that aren't 99% locked up. First let's do some PROBABLE Obama. Massachusetts should go his way but they did elect Romney as governor in 2003. But after noticing Romney's popularity was good through '05 it dropped by the end of his tenure in '07. Another New England state that should go Obama's way is New Hampshire. Out of all the Patriot states NH was the closest to McCain in '08 but I doubt enough voters there are dissatisfied with Obama. How about PROBABLE Romney? Well Nebraska has a strong Republican tradition so Romney should get most of the 5 votes. Notice I say most because Nebraska is one of the few states that will actually split their votes. In '08 Obama received one compared to four to McCain. Also, Montana should give their 3 votes to Romney although Obama received good support in '08 somewhat surprisingly to me. Must be due to all the CA immigrants wanting more space up north.
In case you aren't doing the math at home let me update you after those four states. Obama 246 Romney 159. So now Obama is definitely within striking distance considering Florida is still on the board with 29 votes. Oh boy. Let's save the Orange Bowl state for another paragraph though because it will no doubt be very close. So if we've done our LOCKS and PROBABLES what about the other 11? How about we call some ADVANTAGE states. Let me give you an example. Nevada fits this criteria for Obama. They've gone back and forth over the last 5 elections but in '08 voted for Obama and they've gained an electoral vote for the upcoming election. Now that means their population has increased and clearly the Demos do great in states with high populations. While Nevada isn't high compared to other states the highly populated regions of the state love Obama. Therefore Nevada is an ADVANTAGE state for Obama. Another one is New Mexico. Now the President is up to 257 votes. Clearly the favorite.
But as Lee Corso has stated in the past...not so fast! Here's why. North Carolina and Indiana have traditionally been Republican dominated but went to Obama in '08...BARELY. Therefore I would have to say they are ADVANTAGE states for Romney. Now Romney's up to 185. But more good news on the way in Missouri where McCain actually squeaked by Obama in '08 so that's ten more votes for Romney and another ADVANTAGE state. Another would be Arizona which voted for McCain in '08 but that was his home state. Now I do believe this state could be close but has to be an ADVANTAGE Romney state. Romney 206 Obama 257.
That leaves us 5 states or what I'm calling TOSS UP states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa. I believe these five states will determine the election. Obviously Romney must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa. That's a lot to ask but not impossible. Let me explain why. Let's start with the lowest voting states and work our way up. Iowa went 54% Obama in '08 but went with GWBush in '04. Then there is Colorado which gave Obama 54% in '08 but voted three straight times for Republicans before. How about Virginia? They gave Obama 52.6% in '08 but voted Republican the prior 5 elections and probably more but I only went back to 1988. Next up Ohio who voted Obama 51.5% in '08 but voted twice for GW but twice also for Clinton. Interesting state. Definitely tough to figure out but apparently they like re-electing their President...except for the older Bush of course in '92. Uhhggg. Finally, Florida. Without Florida Romney loses, period. I hope you've realized that by now. Remember without this state in 2000 our President would've been Al Gore. And it came down to a Supreme Court decision. Obama received 51% of the vote in '08 while GW carried it twice and surprisingly so did his father. Do you see the possibilities? It's crazy to think but the Dolphins have been playing much better lately winning their last three games and losing the prior 2 in OT. What's up Miami? And isn't it fitting that Miami is in Florida? Maybe Mitt should see about attending a game. If Mitt can win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado but drop Iowa he would win 275-263. Unbelievable. Go Dolphins...I guess.
So here goes my prediction. First of all I hope you are all aware that our president is not elected through the common one vote by every citizen method aka a popular vote. Instead our country long ago chose an electoral method which uses the popular method in a sense. So while I may vote one way or the other, Idaho as a whole only receives 4 votes total while California gets 55. In fact, the whole election is made up of 538 votes. Why do some states get more than others? Population is the answer, again as some of you already know. Hopefully I'll begin sharing with you info that you may not know soon.
Next what I'd like to point out is some states are firmly entrenched in one political party. Take Washington for example. In the last six elections the Democratic candidate has received Washington's electoral votes. The same goes for New York and Oregon. Likewise in each of the last six elections Texas, Idaho, and Alaska have voted for the Republican candidate every time. Also, if you look at how each state voted in the last election based on the popular vote you can learn a lot about this upcoming election. For example, in Kentucky, a state that did elect Clinton, President Obama only received 42% of the vote in '08. Maybe he'll gain the necessary 8% needed but it would be highly unlikely considering he hasn't been overwhelmingly popular in the last 4 years. So I'm thinking states like Kentucky are going with the opposition again. Thus a person can pretty much determine that some of the states will continue their past trends.
That leaves me with states that I would predict as LOCKS. Here they are listed by state, votes, and which candidate they will support.
|
LOCKS
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
California
|
55
|
|
|
Texas
|
|
38
|
|
New York
|
29
|
|
|
Illinois
|
20
|
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
20
|
|
|
Michigan
|
16
|
|
|
Georgia
|
16
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
14
|
|
|
Washington
|
12
|
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
|
|
Alabama
|
9
|
|
|
South Carolina
|
9
|
|
|
Louisiana
|
8
|
|
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
|
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
|
|
Utah
|
6
|
|
|
West Virginia
|
5
|
|
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
|
|
Maine
|
4
|
|
|
Rhode Island
|
4
|
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
|
|
District of Columbia
|
3
|
|
|
North Dakota
|
3
|
|
|
South Dakota
|
3
|
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
|
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
231
|
151
|
As you can see President Obama is the clear favorite in the election. I told my classes this week that the Dolphins have as good a chance of winning the Superbowl as Romney does winning the election. If you're not convinced consider all either candidate needs to win is 270 votes and there are 15 states left that aren't on my LOCK status. Now I know I'm not an expert so I may be way off base but a red delicious is almost certainly RED.
Moving on to the other 15 states that aren't 99% locked up. First let's do some PROBABLE Obama. Massachusetts should go his way but they did elect Romney as governor in 2003. But after noticing Romney's popularity was good through '05 it dropped by the end of his tenure in '07. Another New England state that should go Obama's way is New Hampshire. Out of all the Patriot states NH was the closest to McCain in '08 but I doubt enough voters there are dissatisfied with Obama. How about PROBABLE Romney? Well Nebraska has a strong Republican tradition so Romney should get most of the 5 votes. Notice I say most because Nebraska is one of the few states that will actually split their votes. In '08 Obama received one compared to four to McCain. Also, Montana should give their 3 votes to Romney although Obama received good support in '08 somewhat surprisingly to me. Must be due to all the CA immigrants wanting more space up north.
|
PROBABLES
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
Massachusetts
|
11
|
|
|
Montana
|
|
3
|
|
Nebraska
|
|
5
|
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
|
In case you aren't doing the math at home let me update you after those four states. Obama 246 Romney 159. So now Obama is definitely within striking distance considering Florida is still on the board with 29 votes. Oh boy. Let's save the Orange Bowl state for another paragraph though because it will no doubt be very close. So if we've done our LOCKS and PROBABLES what about the other 11? How about we call some ADVANTAGE states. Let me give you an example. Nevada fits this criteria for Obama. They've gone back and forth over the last 5 elections but in '08 voted for Obama and they've gained an electoral vote for the upcoming election. Now that means their population has increased and clearly the Demos do great in states with high populations. While Nevada isn't high compared to other states the highly populated regions of the state love Obama. Therefore Nevada is an ADVANTAGE state for Obama. Another one is New Mexico. Now the President is up to 257 votes. Clearly the favorite.
But as Lee Corso has stated in the past...not so fast! Here's why. North Carolina and Indiana have traditionally been Republican dominated but went to Obama in '08...BARELY. Therefore I would have to say they are ADVANTAGE states for Romney. Now Romney's up to 185. But more good news on the way in Missouri where McCain actually squeaked by Obama in '08 so that's ten more votes for Romney and another ADVANTAGE state. Another would be Arizona which voted for McCain in '08 but that was his home state. Now I do believe this state could be close but has to be an ADVANTAGE Romney state. Romney 206 Obama 257.
|
ADVANTAGES
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
Arizona
|
|
11
|
|
Indiana
|
|
11
|
|
Missouri
|
|
10
|
|
Nevada
|
6
|
|
|
New Mexico
|
5
|
|
|
North Carolina
|
|
15
|
That leaves us 5 states or what I'm calling TOSS UP states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa. I believe these five states will determine the election. Obviously Romney must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa. That's a lot to ask but not impossible. Let me explain why. Let's start with the lowest voting states and work our way up. Iowa went 54% Obama in '08 but went with GWBush in '04. Then there is Colorado which gave Obama 54% in '08 but voted three straight times for Republicans before. How about Virginia? They gave Obama 52.6% in '08 but voted Republican the prior 5 elections and probably more but I only went back to 1988. Next up Ohio who voted Obama 51.5% in '08 but voted twice for GW but twice also for Clinton. Interesting state. Definitely tough to figure out but apparently they like re-electing their President...except for the older Bush of course in '92. Uhhggg. Finally, Florida. Without Florida Romney loses, period. I hope you've realized that by now. Remember without this state in 2000 our President would've been Al Gore. And it came down to a Supreme Court decision. Obama received 51% of the vote in '08 while GW carried it twice and surprisingly so did his father. Do you see the possibilities? It's crazy to think but the Dolphins have been playing much better lately winning their last three games and losing the prior 2 in OT. What's up Miami? And isn't it fitting that Miami is in Florida? Maybe Mitt should see about attending a game. If Mitt can win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado but drop Iowa he would win 275-263. Unbelievable. Go Dolphins...I guess.
|
TOSS UPS
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
Colorado
|
|
9
|
|
Florida
|
|
29
|
|
Iowa
|
6
|
|
|
Ohio
|
|
18
|
|
Virginia
|
|
13
|
|
TOTAL
|
263
|
275
|
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