A Look Back

How did my NFL 2012 predictions turn out in the regular season?  Well some truth and fiction.  Let’s start with where I screwed up.

-          Jets and Bills at 11-5 and in the playoffs.  Ouch!

-          Bengals go 6-10.  I respect the Dalton a lot more!

-          Colts 5-11.  Tell you what, they’ve won a lot of close games.  My guess is they take at least a 3-4 game decrease next year.

-          Chiefs win the AFC west at 9-7.  Ouch!! 

-          Broncos at 8-8 miss the playoffs.  Ouchie Mama!!!

-          Eagles at 10-6, Redskins at 3-13.  Philadelphia’s wheels definitely fell off.  RG3 and Alfred Morris are a lot better than I thought.  I didn’t even know who Morris was actually.

-          Lions 11-5, Vikings 4-12.  Double Ouch!

-          Seahawks 7-9 and Rams 4-12.  Now I did say that the Hawks would improve down the stretch but thought their early schedule was too difficult.  Home wins vs GB and NE made a huge impact in their win column.

Now with where I succeeded…

-          Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Packers, Falcons, and 49ers all won their divisions as predicted.

-          Steelers did not make the playoffs as predicted.

-          Jaguars were exactly 2-14.  Titans 6-10.  Buccaneers 7-9.

-          Browns were last in AFC north (although anyone would’ve predicted that)

-          The following teams had either 1 more win or loss than I predicted…Ravens, Texans, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Bears, Panthers, Saints, and Cardinals

Overall Playoff Teams…

-          I was able to get 6 out of 12 on playoff participants…pretty bad really

-          Teams that didn’t make it which I picked:  Jets, Bills, Chiefs, Giants, Bears, and Lions (4 of which seem very ridiculous)

-          Teams that did make it which I didn’t pick:  Seahawks, Redskins, Vikings, Broncos, Colts, and Bengals (can see Denver in retrospect but consider what most of us thought of the other 5 teams QBs before the season began)

Hey, it’s fun to predict and more fun to see how I do.  Give me your thoughts!!!

Kieth

 

Black Monday

Which NFL coaches should be fired in your opinion?  Here's my list in no particular order...

1. Chan Gailey 15-33 in 3 seasons with Buffalo
2. Romeo Crennel 4-15 in just over 1 season with Kansas City
3. Norv Turner 55-41 in 6 seasons with San Diego
4. Jim Schwartz 22-42 in 4 seasons with Detroit

Obviously my list is smaller than what will actually happen but I can't go against the likes of Andy Reid, Ken Whisenhunt, or even Pat Shurmur.  As a one time head coach, albeit high school, I tend to side with the coach.  I'd like to know your thoughts.

Kieth

Quarterfinal Results

South Region:  Alabama never could get on track as Stanford controlled time of possession, didn't turn it over, and racked up 257 yards rushing to control the Tide.  Stanford 21 Alabama 14.

East Region:  Texas A&M scored early and often as Florida State's defense was exposed against a high powered Johnny Manziel led offense.  Texas A&M 31 Florida State 10.

West Region:  Northern Illinois made it two upsets in a row as they were able to get the Century Link Field crowd on their side taking down the favored Wildcats.  With 34 seconds left in regulation dual threat Jordan Lynch ran in a 27 yard TD to cap the victory.  Northern Illinois 28 Kansas State 24.

North Region:  The Fighting Irish did what they have all season...kept winning.  By the skin of their teeth Notre Dame held onto their championship hopes defeating the Gators in overtime.  Theo Riddick's 4 yard TD put the Irish up 7 with Florida's possession 2nd.  On the first play of Florida's drive Mike Gillislee fumbled and Notre Dame advanced.  Notre Dame 17 Florida 10.

Final Four- games to be played January 1st.

Stanford vs Texas A&M (Orange Bowl)
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame (Rose Bowl)

2012 College Football Playoff

First Round Results:

South Region- Utah State 7  Alabama 28
                       South Carolina 18  Stanford 20

East Region- Florida State 31  Ohio State 20
                     Texas A&M 27  Georgia 24

West Region- Northern Illinois 31  Oregon 29
                      LSU 16  Kansas State 24

North Region- Clemson 17  Notre Dame 34
                       Oklahoma 17  Florida 30

Analysis:  obviously the big upset here was Northern Illinois dropping Oregon on the road.  Doesn't seem possible does it?  All I can say is that's why they play the game.  How many times have we written off NFL teams going on the road in the playoffs?  Perfect example...1996 Jaguars in Denver.  And I know, I'm not an Oregon fan whatsoever but I didn't cheat.  Oregon had an advantage 4-1.  The Huskies (ironically Northern Illinois' mascot/nickname) came out of the hat despite only one slip.  This is why we need a playoff so all teams could settle it on the field.  And by the way the game was decided by a missed Oregon field goal with no time on the clock.  Speaking of missed field goals, South Carolina lost at Stanford in the waning moments due to a miss.  Spurrier made all those faces, moved the visor a few times, and bent over facing the ground.  Texas A&M kicked a late 40 yarder to win their battle vs Georgia.  And Florida State took down undefeated Ohio State despite the odds in a classic case of a #1 seed being upset by a team previously thought to be a "top seed." 

Quarterfinal Matchups:

South Region- Alabama vs Stanford (Reliant Stadium in Houston)

East Region- Florida State vs Texas A&M (Met Life Stadium in Newark)

West Region- Northern Illinois vs Kansas State (Century Link Field in Seattle)

North Region- Notre Dame vs Florida (Ford Field in Detroit)

College Football Playoff 2012 Week 1 Results

Preliminary Round Results

South Region:  Boise State 27 Utah State 37

East Region:  Tulsa 10 Florida State 31

West Region:  Louisville 21 Northern Illinois 31

North Region:  Arkansas State 24 Clemson 49

*all home teams won their matchups

First Round Schedule

South Region:  Utah State @ Alabama AND South Carolina @ Stanford

East Region:  Florida State @ Ohio State AND Texas A&M vs Georgia (St. Louis)

West Region:  Northern Illinois @ Oregon AND LSU vs Kansas State (St. Louis)

North Region:  Clemson @ Notre Dame AND Oklahoma @ Florida

College Football Playoff 2012

Over the years I've dreamt, pondered, and calculated a college football playoff for Division 1-A (FBS).  I've held mock playoffs a variety of ways but last year finally decided on a plan to stick with.  Oklahoma State came out on top in a classic shootout over Stanford featuring two current NFL starting QBs.  Of course neither of them were qualified enough to take on the likes of Alabama or LSU...(throat clearing repeatedly.)  This year I bring back the same method and this year's tournament begins today.

Tournament Specifications:

1. A 20 team playoff...I know you may think that waters down college football but clearly it doesn't.  Consider that there are 123 teams in the FBS.  20 out of 123 = 16%.  Compare that to the NFL which sends 12 out of 32 to their playoff.  
2. All Conference Champs are included...yes I know typically the winner of the Sun Belt isn't nationally ranked, but the idea of a playoff or tournament is to include all worthy representatives.
3. 11 Conference Champs + 9 At-large bids...just look at the at-large teams and tell me which do not deserve a shot.  They all do and you know it!
4. All teams are eligible regardless of NCAA postseason sanctions...the way I see it is if you allow them to have a record then I'm going to send them to my playoff.  And since this is mythical and I'm the creator I can do what I want!
5. Games will be decided by odds...I used to just send out an email to 3 or 5 people and tell them to vote for a winner but I decided that was too predictable and all my results were ending up just like the AP poll.  So last year I adopted the draw out of a hat method except with some odds involved.  So when Clemson upset Alabama in my playoff last year they were 6 Alabama tabs versus only 1 Clemson and yet a Clemson was pulled out the hat.  Now obviously this way isn't perfect (I'd take suggestions) but the reality of sports is that not every regular season powerhouse wins the national tournament.  While Alabama was certainly one of the best teams last year they didn't prove it nationally.  They only beat another SEC team for goodness sakes!!!!  Ridiculous!!!!
6. Seeding...I determine seeding based on my expertise.  I can take the heat for any seeding mistakes but the big thing here is all get in that should be in.  
7. Locations...I am into saving $$ even if it is mythical therefore all preliminary and first round games will be played at the higher seed.  EXCEPTIONS:  the two first round games featuring the overall 7-10 seeds will be played at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis.  Then all quarterfinal games will be played regionally including Ford Field, Met Life Stadium, Reliant Stadium, and Century Link Field.  The semifinals will be held in conjunction with the bowls on January 1st so this year the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl will host.  The championship game will be played at Cowboys Stadium...considering Dallas won't be playing in January.

Automatic Conference Bids:

- Stanford, Alabama, Florida State, Tulsa, Louisville, Arkansas State, Boise State, Utah State, Northern Illinois, Kansas State, and Ohio State (deserved the Big Ten Championship considering their regular season record)

At Large Bids:

- Georgia, Oregon, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Clemson (okay the only questionable team here, but their two losses were both fairly close and to teams in the field, more than you can say for any other team on the bubble)

Bubbles Burst:  

- Oregon State, Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan

Overall Seeding:

              1) Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Ohio State

              2) Georgia, Kansas State, Florida, Stanford

              3) Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, Oklahoma

              4) Florida State, Clemson, Northern Illinois, Utah State

              5) Boise State, Louisville, Arkansas State, Tulsa

Bracket Seeding:

South Region:  Alabama, Stanford, South Carolina, Utah State, Boise State

East Region:  Ohio State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida State, Tulsa

West Region:  Oregon, Kansas State, LSU, Northern Illinois, Louisville

North Region:  Notre Dame, Florida, Oklahoma, Clemson, Arkansas State

Preliminary Round Games (December 8th @ higher seed):

South Region:  Boise State @ Utah State

East Region:  Tulsa @ Florida State

West Region:  Louisville @ Northern Illinois

North Region:  Arkansas State @ Clemson

Results coming tomorrow or late this evening!  Enjoy.

Fink

Fragile Forty-Niners

For those of you that aren't aware Michael Brandt made a claim pre-season saying the 49ers were "fragile."  Once SF lost at home to the Giants a few weeks ago Michael reminded Tyler Greenwood and I of that statement.  Tyler and I have never been so sure and after the Thursday night win over Seattle I stated that the 49ers showed that they weren't fragile but had an opportunity to show otherwise trailing at half.  An argument ensued, facebook was the forum, and Michael's brother told us to get a room.  Of course, after SF's tie yesterday Michael brought up the "fragile" term again.  Here is my closing statement on this "fragile" description of the 2012 49ers.

First of all I have to define "fragile."  Michael's definition may be different but when I think fragile in sports I think of someone who is mentally weak.  When the times get tough the person folds.  On top of this mental weakness I think of someone allowing past results to question their self-confidence. 

Coming into the season I can see how Kyle Williams a WR for SF would be fragile.  He made a key turnover that probably cost SF a Superbowl trip last year.  But to say the team was fragile I can't see that.  If anything SF started this season with too much confidence.  Many experts were picking them to be a superbowl contender and they themselves expected greatness.  Their defense was considered one of the best as was their running game and special teams plus their young QB was showing signs of maturity.  I do remember Michael bringing up the fact Alex Smith may be fragile since the Niners pursued Peyton Manning briefly.  While I can see Michael's point I firmly believe Smith started this season with more confidence than ever before.

Now the season is over half over and the 49ers have been great, good, mediocre, and bad.  Smith has been okay but not as good as last season which is a downer for some fans who expected him to continuing to rise.  Fragile though?  Maybe but not more than any other time in his career that's for sure.  The 49ers rush D in particular has given up much more than what I expected.  Are they fragile?  Maybe but it's probably fans like me that are more fragile than they actually are.  David Akers should've won the game yesterday but didn't and hasn't kicked nearly as well as last season.  Fragile?  I can see it but the guy is nearly 40 if not so and has been cut by his original franchise only to make the All-Pro team.  Again I think its the fans that are probably fragile and doubt Akers is rattled.

But let's say the Niners are fragile at this point in the season.  If that's true how many other teams are also fragile?  I would say quite a few and I would say it changes from week to week or even quarter to quarter.  Can the Steelers be fragile after Big Ben went down tonight?  What about the Ravens without Ray Lewis?  They looked great yesterday.  But, as Michael may state, his term was not a game to game term but rather a long term label.  So what about New England who has been the #1 seed in the AFC the last two years but failed to win the Superbowl?  Are Brady and Belichick fragile?  At the very least their defense has to be fragile considering all the heat they've taken over the last 2 years.  You could make an argument.  Those last 3 teams are some of the best the NFL has to offer.  I could easily make a case that over half the NFL teams are fragile.  Of course according to my definition.

Lastly I'd like to point out that in this heated argument Michael told Tyler to wait until season's end to determine whether his label was right or wrong.  Which seems right I guess but by what standard are you judging them by Michael?  What is the rubric you've set up for the 49ers fragility?  I haven't asked and am hoping you will tell but my guess is without winning the Superbowl you will declare your label correct.  If that's the case then it's a ridiculous standard.  Yes, the 49ers have placed the Superbowl or nothing expectation on themselves, but so have 10-12 teams.  Are those teams fragile if they don't win the Superbowl?  Certainly the 49ers aren't the only team that "experts" picked to win the Superbowl at the beginning of the season.  Did the odds makers in Vegas have SF at the top?  I doubt it.  I'd say the Packers were probably most people's favorite and if they don't win the Superbowl this season it would easy to label them fragile.

Overall do I think the 49ers are fragile?  No I don't.  When the tough times come, and they will come, I believe the 49ers will compete with their defense, running game, and special teams exactly how Jim Harbaugh wants it.  Does that mean they'll win every game?  No!  Will they get blown out in the playoffs?  Maybe.  The '86 49ers were smoked in the playoffs, the '87 team choked in the postseason, and the result was back to back Superbowls the next two years.  If winning a Superbowl is what it takes to shrug off the label "fragile," then there are a number of teams falling into the category over the history of the NFL.  But I would rather simply say those teams weren't good enough and as I predicted at the beginning of the season on this blog site the 49ers will fall into that category.

JFAI
      

Presidential Election

Heading away from sports for one post to address the upcoming presidential election.  Hey, it only comes along every four years and the winner is one of the world's most influential people so I'll give the situation some attention.  Plus I found a neat couple webpages that help me or you to predict the election.  And we all know predictions is a big part of this site.  To top it off research from past statistics are fueling my predictions and as you all know I love stats.

So here goes my prediction.  First of all I hope you are all aware that our president is not elected through the common one vote by every citizen method aka a popular vote.  Instead our country long ago chose an electoral method which uses the popular method in a sense.  So while I may vote one way or the other, Idaho as a whole only receives 4 votes total while California gets 55.  In fact, the whole election is made up of 538 votes.  Why do some states get more than others?  Population is the answer, again as some of you already know.  Hopefully I'll begin sharing with you info that you may not know soon.

Next what I'd like to point out is some states are firmly entrenched in one political party.  Take Washington for example.  In the last six elections the Democratic candidate has received Washington's electoral votes.  The same goes for New York and Oregon.  Likewise in each of the last six elections Texas, Idaho, and Alaska have voted for the Republican candidate every time.  Also, if you look at how each state voted in the last election based on the popular vote you can learn a lot about this upcoming election.  For example, in Kentucky, a state that did elect Clinton, President Obama only received 42% of the vote in '08.  Maybe he'll gain the necessary 8% needed but it would be highly unlikely considering he hasn't been overwhelmingly popular in the last 4 years.  So I'm thinking states like Kentucky are going with the opposition again.  Thus a person can pretty much determine that some of the states will continue their past trends. 

That leaves me with states that I would predict as LOCKS.  Here they are listed by state, votes, and which candidate they will support.

LOCKS	Obama	Romney
California	55
Texas		38
New York	29
Illinois	20
Pennsylvania	20
Michigan	16
Georgia		16
New Jersey	14
Washington	12
Tennessee		11
Maryland	10
Minnesota	10
Wisconsin	10
Alabama		9
South Carolina		9
Louisiana		8
Kentucky		8
Connecticut	7
Oklahoma		7
Oregon	7
Arkansas		6
Kansas		6
Mississippi		6
Utah		6
West Virginia		5
Hawaii	4
Idaho		4
Maine	4
Rhode Island	4
Alaska		3
Delaware	3
District of Columbia	3
North Dakota		3
South Dakota		3
Vermont	3
Wyoming		3
TOTAL	231	151

 As you can see President Obama is the clear favorite in the election.  I told my classes this week that the Dolphins have as good a chance of winning the Superbowl as Romney does winning the election.  If you're not convinced consider all either candidate needs to win is 270 votes and there are 15 states left that aren't on my LOCK status.  Now I know I'm not an expert so I may be way off base but a red delicious is almost certainly RED. 

Moving on to the other 15 states that aren't 99% locked up.  First let's do some PROBABLE Obama.  Massachusetts should go his way but they did elect Romney as governor in 2003.  But after noticing Romney's popularity was good through '05 it dropped by the end of his tenure in '07.  Another New England state that should go Obama's way is New Hampshire.  Out of all the Patriot states NH was the closest to McCain in '08 but I doubt enough voters there are dissatisfied with Obama.  How about PROBABLE Romney?  Well Nebraska has a strong Republican tradition so Romney should get most of the 5 votes.  Notice I say most because Nebraska is one of the few states that will actually split their votes.  In '08 Obama received one compared to four to McCain.  Also, Montana should give their 3 votes to Romney although Obama received good support in '08 somewhat surprisingly to me.  Must be due to all the CA immigrants wanting more space up north.

PROBABLES	Obama	Romney
Massachusetts	11
Montana		3
Nebraska		5
New Hampshire	4

In case you aren't doing the math at home let me update you after those four states.  Obama 246 Romney 159.  So now Obama is definitely within striking distance considering Florida is still on the board with 29 votes.  Oh boy.  Let's save the Orange Bowl state for another paragraph though because it will no doubt be very close.  So if we've done our LOCKS and PROBABLES what about the other 11?  How about we call some ADVANTAGE states.  Let me give you an example.  Nevada fits this criteria for Obama.  They've gone back and forth over the last 5 elections but in '08 voted for Obama and they've gained an electoral vote for the upcoming election.  Now that means their population has increased and clearly the Demos do great in states with high populations.  While Nevada isn't high compared to other states the highly populated regions of the state love Obama.  Therefore Nevada is an ADVANTAGE state for Obama.  Another one is New Mexico.  Now the President is up to 257 votes.  Clearly the favorite. 

But as Lee Corso has stated in the past...not so fast!  Here's why.  North Carolina and Indiana have traditionally been Republican dominated but went to Obama in '08...BARELY.  Therefore I would have to say they are ADVANTAGE states for Romney.  Now Romney's up to 185.  But more good news on the way in Missouri where McCain actually squeaked by Obama in '08 so that's ten more votes for Romney and another ADVANTAGE state.  Another would be Arizona which voted for McCain in '08 but that was his home state.  Now I do believe this state could be close but has to be an ADVANTAGE Romney state.  Romney 206 Obama 257.

ADVANTAGES	Obama	Romney
Arizona		11
Indiana		11
Missouri		10
Nevada	6
New Mexico	5
North Carolina		15

That leaves us 5 states or what I'm calling TOSS UP states:  Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.  I believe these five states will determine the election.  Obviously Romney must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa.  That's a lot to ask but not impossible.  Let me explain why.  Let's start with the lowest voting states and work our way up.  Iowa went 54% Obama in '08 but went with GWBush in '04.  Then there is Colorado which gave Obama 54% in '08 but voted three straight times for Republicans before.  How about Virginia?  They gave Obama 52.6% in '08 but voted Republican the prior 5 elections and probably more but I only went back to 1988.  Next up Ohio who voted Obama 51.5% in '08 but voted twice for GW but twice also for Clinton.  Interesting state.  Definitely tough to figure out but apparently they like re-electing their President...except for the older Bush of course in '92.  Uhhggg.  Finally, Florida.  Without Florida Romney loses, period.  I hope you've realized that by now.  Remember without this state in 2000 our President would've been Al Gore.  And it came down to a Supreme Court decision.  Obama received 51% of the vote in '08 while GW carried it twice and surprisingly so did his father.  Do you see the possibilities?  It's crazy to think but the Dolphins have been playing much better lately winning their last three games and losing the prior 2 in OT.  What's up Miami?  And isn't it fitting that Miami is in Florida?  Maybe Mitt should see about attending a game.  If Mitt can win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado but drop Iowa he would win 275-263.  Unbelievable.  Go Dolphins...I guess.     

TOSS UPS	Obama	Romney
Colorado		9
Florida		29
Iowa	6
Ohio		18
Virginia		13
TOTAL	263	275