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| All types of obstacles are used to keep Lucy in the yard. |
Have any favorite Olympic moments? Just Fink About It!
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Figuring It Out and Olympic Moment
So in a week's time I've realized a few things. One, I didn't write a blog last time but a column. So I thought about it and decided that I would stick with a column and hope the site does turn into a forum which means discussion. To help I've made it so you don't need an account to post replies to my column (thank you Michael). Second, I need some more technology. Picture books aren't just for kids. Third, I probably don't need to write a book. Many people will simply look at the length and be content to read Bill Simmons on ESPN rather than a guy's stuff who has a redneck barrier for his dog in his backyard (see below).
Anyways, let's talk Olympics. I'm not a huge Olympics guy but they are on all the time (little too many commercials if you ask me) and deserve some text. I was thinking the other day what my all-time favorite Olympic moment would be. Of course the Dream Team winning in '92 was great, but I was in 6th grade so I'm not sure I actually remember a whole lot of watching them play. Seeing Muhammad Ali holding the torch in '96 was sweet! I'm pretty sure a bunch of Americans were crying during that moment. And I do think getting up at odd hours of the day to watch USA basketball win the gold in Beijing is a highlight as well. But, my all-time favorite Olympic moment is watching Michael Johnson win gold in the 200 meters in Atlanta. The guy not only won gold, but set a world record. The lasting image of him celebrating in front of a timeboard with his record setting speed is one I will never forget. To top it off, he wore gold shoes. Classy.
Have any favorite Olympic moments? Just Fink About It!
Have any favorite Olympic moments? Just Fink About It!
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Dream Scheme
When Kobe Bryant was asked a couple weeks ago if the current USA Olympic basketball roster could beat the Dream Team from 1992 he responded with, "it would be tough, but I think we'd pull it out." Honestly, I don't mind his response. I'm a competitor and I think I'm going to win every time. He should believe the same or else I wouldn't want him representing us in London. However, the fact that this story is gaining more momentum nationally and Americans actually think 2012 would defeat 1992 is simply the Dream Scheme. In one game, one series, or one debate there is no doubt that the 1992 USA Olympic team would overcome the current roster.
To prove my point I will make 5 observations after looking at some statistics. That's right you touchy-feely types. An eye-test is one thing, but statistics make vision legit. Attached you will find statistics for the '92 and '12 teams. For the '92 team it is the individual stats from the 1991-92 NBA season they had just completed before the Olympics. For the '12 team it is the stats from this past 2011-12 NBA season. A couple notes are that Laettner was left off my '92 spreadsheet because he played college that year and let's face it was more of a ceremonial player than anything. And Magic's stats are from the '90-91 season because he retired just before the '91-92 season began. This may cost the '92 team a couple points. Also, the current roster is with Blake Griffin and without Anthony Davis even though the opposite will be true in London. A huge performance from Davis could get the '12 team a couple more points. Finally, the method to find player age is not 100% correct but close enough and the same for both teams.
Speaking of age brings me to my first observation: The original Dream Team was not old! Are you kidding me? Take a look, other than Bird, Kobe is the oldest player on either roster. Magic was the only other '92 player over 30. As you can see the average age of the '92 team was 29 compared to 26 for the current team. And while I've noticed great players may have their best scoring outputs early in their career, their overall game and championships or championship opportunities tend to come around later in their career. Just because Bird and Magic were ending their careers doesn't speak for the other 9 members who were right smack in their prime. Let's just take a closer look at Bird, the oldest member of the '92 team. I am so sick of everyone saying he couldn't do anything but lay on the floor at this point in his career! He averaged more points that season than Chris Paul, more rebounds than all current members other than Chandler, Love, and Griffin, and more assists than any current member other than Williams and Paul (both pgs). Wait, did I just point out Bird had better numbers than LeBron in rebounding and assists? Why yes I did. And obviously we haven't addressed the fact Larry shot 41% from distance that year as well. Boy those '92 guys were washed up!!!
Observation 2: John Stockton is far better than anyone today gives him credit! I just read something that said when Stockton was guarding anyone on the current roster let's just "iso" that player and let him take Stockton to the rim. Are you out of your mind?? Just because the guy looks like he should've been a stock broker and not one of the top 3 PGs in NBA history doesn't mean he can't defend. In fact, the guy was a freakin defensive machine. Take '92 for instance...Stockton averaged 3 steals a game! I'm not sure if you realize how many that is so let me put it in perspective for ya. That is better than anyone on either roster in this Olympic matchup and Stockton himself was only at 2.2 for his career. I'd love to see Williams, Paul, or Westbrook drive against Stockton. Sure they'd score because that's what players do, score, hello! But I guarantee "old" John would pick them clean and make them look silly a few times as well. He certainly wouldn't be a liability on defense. And offensively, oh my, Stockton leads either roster in assists at nearly 14 a game (!!!) and three point % at 41%. Those numbers speak for themselves. Stockton was a beast not a liability.
Observation 3: The '92 team was more complete. Without going on to a later observation I'm not just pointing out the obvious lack of center depth the '12 team has. It's more than that. At point the Dream Team had the 2 best all-time. For their career and in that season both averaged more than 10 assists per game. Impressively, Chris Paul is 3rd on the career assists per game list, but under 10 as he was this season. And of course Johnson's ability to rebound and post his opponent is unmatched. At shooting guard just do this...compare Jordan's numbers to Kobe's off my spreadsheet. There's no comparison. The current team would have to bench Kobe and play LeBron at shooting guard to measure up to MJ. Of course the '12 team would have to do that at almost every position to match up. At small forward there is a slight advantage for 2012, at least at first glance. Not much balance though, you know? Too many small forwards for 2012. How can LeBron, Durant, and Melo all play the same time? Guess you could do it, but defense gets weak quickly. And really is it an advantage? I already pointed out Bird's advantages over these three, Pippen takes them on in every category except the 3 point line and scoring, and even Mullin averaged more steals a game then all 3, shot just as well as any of them, and scored over 25 a game. Do I really even need to cover power forward and center? Actually that takes us to...
Observation 4: The '92 team is dominant in the post!! This observation is so easy my daughter Holly could write about it. But, it still needs to be made since easy baskets are key to great offense. And let me tell you, the Dream Team would get a ton of easy baskets. The '12 team has 3 guys over 50% FG's. The 92' team...7 players. The power forwards and centers on the Dream Team overwhelm the current roster. Each scored at least 23 and grabbed 11 per. Each shot at least 52% from the field and 70% from the line. Only Love comes close to measuring up with impressive #s in scoring and rebounds. And defensively is just ridiculous. The block averages of Robinson and Ewing make you salivate if you love the famous line, "rejected!" I'd love to see LeBron, Kobe, and Durant attack the hoop with the Admiral standing there and his 4.5 blocks per game waiting. Honestly, who would post up on the current roster other than Love and be consistently successful? Then ask yourself the same question about the '92 team. Exactly. Not even close, which is why some people are saying..."this isn't the real 2012 dream team without Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade.
Observation 5: Put whoever you want on the today's team and it wouldn't matter! To illustrate this point I've made an alternative spreadsheet with the 3 prior players on the current roster and 3 other players off. As you can see all gaps between the two teams get closer. But, in all cases except 3 point % the '92 team is still better overall. Wade and Bosh really don't help too much statistically, but Howard is the guy that could be a difference maker. While his rebounds and FG% are impressive, Howard's blocks, FT%, and points are disappointing compared to Ewing and Robinson. It's easy to see why Howard isn't averaging a few more points these days...he can't shoot. When a person thinks back and envisions Ewing with the knee pads and sweat sinking to the floor it's crazy to think 70% from the line and 3 blocks a game, but that's him in '92 people.
And really, overall, that's what we have to think about. This isn't Jordan and Pippen in '98 on their last hurrah. Or Stockton to Malone trying to defeat the latter in the Finals. It's not Robinson deferring to Duncan in '99 over Ewing's Knicks. No, this is Barkley before TNT, Drexler before the Rockets, and Chris Mullin when he was...uhh...whoever he was. And this doesn't take away from 2012. I'm pulling for them, will watch their games, and expect gold. But in a matchup with '92 it isn't happening.
Just Fink About It!
p.s. I thought I could attach an excel document, but can't. I'll email the stats if you would like them or maybe someone can enlighten me on how to attach. Here is my best shot...
To prove my point I will make 5 observations after looking at some statistics. That's right you touchy-feely types. An eye-test is one thing, but statistics make vision legit. Attached you will find statistics for the '92 and '12 teams. For the '92 team it is the individual stats from the 1991-92 NBA season they had just completed before the Olympics. For the '12 team it is the stats from this past 2011-12 NBA season. A couple notes are that Laettner was left off my '92 spreadsheet because he played college that year and let's face it was more of a ceremonial player than anything. And Magic's stats are from the '90-91 season because he retired just before the '91-92 season began. This may cost the '92 team a couple points. Also, the current roster is with Blake Griffin and without Anthony Davis even though the opposite will be true in London. A huge performance from Davis could get the '12 team a couple more points. Finally, the method to find player age is not 100% correct but close enough and the same for both teams.
Speaking of age brings me to my first observation: The original Dream Team was not old! Are you kidding me? Take a look, other than Bird, Kobe is the oldest player on either roster. Magic was the only other '92 player over 30. As you can see the average age of the '92 team was 29 compared to 26 for the current team. And while I've noticed great players may have their best scoring outputs early in their career, their overall game and championships or championship opportunities tend to come around later in their career. Just because Bird and Magic were ending their careers doesn't speak for the other 9 members who were right smack in their prime. Let's just take a closer look at Bird, the oldest member of the '92 team. I am so sick of everyone saying he couldn't do anything but lay on the floor at this point in his career! He averaged more points that season than Chris Paul, more rebounds than all current members other than Chandler, Love, and Griffin, and more assists than any current member other than Williams and Paul (both pgs). Wait, did I just point out Bird had better numbers than LeBron in rebounding and assists? Why yes I did. And obviously we haven't addressed the fact Larry shot 41% from distance that year as well. Boy those '92 guys were washed up!!!
Observation 2: John Stockton is far better than anyone today gives him credit! I just read something that said when Stockton was guarding anyone on the current roster let's just "iso" that player and let him take Stockton to the rim. Are you out of your mind?? Just because the guy looks like he should've been a stock broker and not one of the top 3 PGs in NBA history doesn't mean he can't defend. In fact, the guy was a freakin defensive machine. Take '92 for instance...Stockton averaged 3 steals a game! I'm not sure if you realize how many that is so let me put it in perspective for ya. That is better than anyone on either roster in this Olympic matchup and Stockton himself was only at 2.2 for his career. I'd love to see Williams, Paul, or Westbrook drive against Stockton. Sure they'd score because that's what players do, score, hello! But I guarantee "old" John would pick them clean and make them look silly a few times as well. He certainly wouldn't be a liability on defense. And offensively, oh my, Stockton leads either roster in assists at nearly 14 a game (!!!) and three point % at 41%. Those numbers speak for themselves. Stockton was a beast not a liability.
Observation 3: The '92 team was more complete. Without going on to a later observation I'm not just pointing out the obvious lack of center depth the '12 team has. It's more than that. At point the Dream Team had the 2 best all-time. For their career and in that season both averaged more than 10 assists per game. Impressively, Chris Paul is 3rd on the career assists per game list, but under 10 as he was this season. And of course Johnson's ability to rebound and post his opponent is unmatched. At shooting guard just do this...compare Jordan's numbers to Kobe's off my spreadsheet. There's no comparison. The current team would have to bench Kobe and play LeBron at shooting guard to measure up to MJ. Of course the '12 team would have to do that at almost every position to match up. At small forward there is a slight advantage for 2012, at least at first glance. Not much balance though, you know? Too many small forwards for 2012. How can LeBron, Durant, and Melo all play the same time? Guess you could do it, but defense gets weak quickly. And really is it an advantage? I already pointed out Bird's advantages over these three, Pippen takes them on in every category except the 3 point line and scoring, and even Mullin averaged more steals a game then all 3, shot just as well as any of them, and scored over 25 a game. Do I really even need to cover power forward and center? Actually that takes us to...
Observation 4: The '92 team is dominant in the post!! This observation is so easy my daughter Holly could write about it. But, it still needs to be made since easy baskets are key to great offense. And let me tell you, the Dream Team would get a ton of easy baskets. The '12 team has 3 guys over 50% FG's. The 92' team...7 players. The power forwards and centers on the Dream Team overwhelm the current roster. Each scored at least 23 and grabbed 11 per. Each shot at least 52% from the field and 70% from the line. Only Love comes close to measuring up with impressive #s in scoring and rebounds. And defensively is just ridiculous. The block averages of Robinson and Ewing make you salivate if you love the famous line, "rejected!" I'd love to see LeBron, Kobe, and Durant attack the hoop with the Admiral standing there and his 4.5 blocks per game waiting. Honestly, who would post up on the current roster other than Love and be consistently successful? Then ask yourself the same question about the '92 team. Exactly. Not even close, which is why some people are saying..."this isn't the real 2012 dream team without Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade.
Observation 5: Put whoever you want on the today's team and it wouldn't matter! To illustrate this point I've made an alternative spreadsheet with the 3 prior players on the current roster and 3 other players off. As you can see all gaps between the two teams get closer. But, in all cases except 3 point % the '92 team is still better overall. Wade and Bosh really don't help too much statistically, but Howard is the guy that could be a difference maker. While his rebounds and FG% are impressive, Howard's blocks, FT%, and points are disappointing compared to Ewing and Robinson. It's easy to see why Howard isn't averaging a few more points these days...he can't shoot. When a person thinks back and envisions Ewing with the knee pads and sweat sinking to the floor it's crazy to think 70% from the line and 3 blocks a game, but that's him in '92 people.
And really, overall, that's what we have to think about. This isn't Jordan and Pippen in '98 on their last hurrah. Or Stockton to Malone trying to defeat the latter in the Finals. It's not Robinson deferring to Duncan in '99 over Ewing's Knicks. No, this is Barkley before TNT, Drexler before the Rockets, and Chris Mullin when he was...uhh...whoever he was. And this doesn't take away from 2012. I'm pulling for them, will watch their games, and expect gold. But in a matchup with '92 it isn't happening.
Just Fink About It!
p.s. I thought I could attach an excel document, but can't. I'll email the stats if you would like them or maybe someone can enlighten me on how to attach. Here is my best shot...
age
|
ppg
|
rebs
|
asts
|
stls
|
blks
|
fg%
|
ft%
|
3pt%
|
|
Paul
|
27
|
19.8
|
3.6
|
9.1
|
2.5
|
0.1
|
0.487
|
0.861
|
0.371
|
Williams
|
28
|
21.0
|
3.3
|
8.7
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.407
|
0.843
|
0.336
|
Westbrook
|
23
|
23.6
|
4.6
|
5.5
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.457
|
0.823
|
0.316
|
Bryant
|
33
|
27.9
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.430
|
0.845
|
0.303
|
Harden
|
22
|
16.8
|
4.1
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.491
|
0.846
|
0.390
|
James
|
27
|
27.1
|
7.9
|
6.2
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
0.531
|
0.771
|
0.362
|
Durant
|
23
|
28.0
|
8.0
|
3.5
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
0.496
|
0.860
|
0.387
|
Iguodala
|
28
|
12.4
|
6.1
|
5.5
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
0.454
|
0.617
|
0.394
|
Anthony
|
28
|
22.6
|
6.3
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.430
|
0.804
|
0.335
|
Griffin
|
23
|
20.7
|
10.9
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.549
|
0.521
|
0.125
|
Love
|
23
|
26.0
|
13.3
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.448
|
0.824
|
0.372
|
Chandler
|
29
|
11.3
|
9.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
0.679
|
0.689
|
0.000
|
26.2
|
21.4
|
7.0
|
4.7
|
1.4
|
0.6
|
0.488
|
0.775
|
0.308
|
|
age
|
ppg
|
rebs
|
asts
|
stls
|
blks
|
fg%
|
ft%
|
3pt%
|
|
Johnson
|
32
|
19.4
|
7.0
|
12.5
|
1.3
|
0.2
|
0.477
|
0.906
|
0.320
|
Stockton
|
29
|
15.8
|
3.3
|
13.7
|
3.0
|
0.3
|
0.482
|
0.842
|
0.407
|
Jordan
|
28
|
30.1
|
6.4
|
6.1
|
2.3
|
0.9
|
0.519
|
0.832
|
0.270
|
Drexler
|
29
|
25.0
|
6.6
|
6.7
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
0.470
|
0.794
|
0.337
|
Mullin
|
28
|
25.6
|
5.6
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.524
|
0.833
|
0.366
|
Pippen
|
26
|
21.0
|
7.7
|
7.0
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
0.506
|
0.760
|
0.200
|
Bird
|
35
|
20.2
|
9.6
|
6.8
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
0.466
|
0.926
|
0.406
|
Barkley
|
28
|
23.1
|
11.1
|
4.1
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.552
|
0.695
|
0.234
|
Malone
|
28
|
28.0
|
11.2
|
3.0
|
1.3
|
0.6
|
0.526
|
0.778
|
0.176
|
Robinson
|
26
|
23.2
|
12.2
|
2.7
|
2.3
|
4.5
|
0.551
|
0.701
|
0.125
|
Ewing
|
29
|
24.0
|
11.2
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
3.0
|
0.522
|
0.738
|
0.167
|
28.9
|
23.2
|
8.4
|
6.2
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
0.509
|
0.800
|
0.273
|
|
age
|
ppg
|
rebs
|
asts
|
stls
|
blks
|
fg%
|
ft%
|
3pt%
|
|
|
Paul
|
27
|
19.8
|
3.6
|
9.1
|
2.5
|
0.1
|
0.487
|
0.861
|
0.371
|
|
Williams
|
28
|
21.0
|
3.3
|
8.7
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.407
|
0.843
|
0.336
|
|
Westbrook
|
23
|
23.6
|
4.6
|
5.5
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.457
|
0.823
|
0.316
|
|
Bryant
|
33
|
27.9
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.430
|
0.845
|
0.303
|
|
Wade
|
30
|
22.1
|
4.8
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
0.497
|
0.791
|
0.268
|
|
James
|
27
|
27.1
|
7.9
|
6.2
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
0.531
|
0.771
|
0.362
|
|
Durant
|
23
|
28.0
|
8.0
|
3.5
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
0.496
|
0.860
|
0.387
|
|
Anthony
|
28
|
22.6
|
6.3
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.430
|
0.804
|
0.335
|
|
Bosh
|
27
|
18.0
|
7.9
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.487
|
0.821
|
0.286
|
|
Love
|
23
|
26.0
|
13.3
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.448
|
0.824
|
0.372
|
|
Chandler
|
29
|
11.3
|
9.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
0.679
|
0.689
|
0.000
|
|
Howard
|
26
|
20.6
|
14.5
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
2.1
|
0.573
|
0.491
|
0.000
|
|
|
27.0
|
22.3
|
7.5
|
4.4
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
0.494
|
0.785
|
0.278
|
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