Presidential Election

Heading away from sports for one post to address the upcoming presidential election.  Hey, it only comes along every four years and the winner is one of the world's most influential people so I'll give the situation some attention.  Plus I found a neat couple webpages that help me or you to predict the election.  And we all know predictions is a big part of this site.  To top it off research from past statistics are fueling my predictions and as you all know I love stats.

So here goes my prediction.  First of all I hope you are all aware that our president is not elected through the common one vote by every citizen method aka a popular vote.  Instead our country long ago chose an electoral method which uses the popular method in a sense.  So while I may vote one way or the other, Idaho as a whole only receives 4 votes total while California gets 55.  In fact, the whole election is made up of 538 votes.  Why do some states get more than others?  Population is the answer, again as some of you already know.  Hopefully I'll begin sharing with you info that you may not know soon.

Next what I'd like to point out is some states are firmly entrenched in one political party.  Take Washington for example.  In the last six elections the Democratic candidate has received Washington's electoral votes.  The same goes for New York and Oregon.  Likewise in each of the last six elections Texas, Idaho, and Alaska have voted for the Republican candidate every time.  Also, if you look at how each state voted in the last election based on the popular vote you can learn a lot about this upcoming election.  For example, in Kentucky, a state that did elect Clinton, President Obama only received 42% of the vote in '08.  Maybe he'll gain the necessary 8% needed but it would be highly unlikely considering he hasn't been overwhelmingly popular in the last 4 years.  So I'm thinking states like Kentucky are going with the opposition again.  Thus a person can pretty much determine that some of the states will continue their past trends. 

That leaves me with states that I would predict as LOCKS.  Here they are listed by state, votes, and which candidate they will support.

LOCKS	Obama	Romney
California	55
Texas		38
New York	29
Illinois	20
Pennsylvania	20
Michigan	16
Georgia		16
New Jersey	14
Washington	12
Tennessee		11
Maryland	10
Minnesota	10
Wisconsin	10
Alabama		9
South Carolina		9
Louisiana		8
Kentucky		8
Connecticut	7
Oklahoma		7
Oregon	7
Arkansas		6
Kansas		6
Mississippi		6
Utah		6
West Virginia		5
Hawaii	4
Idaho		4
Maine	4
Rhode Island	4
Alaska		3
Delaware	3
District of Columbia	3
North Dakota		3
South Dakota		3
Vermont	3
Wyoming		3
TOTAL	231	151

 As you can see President Obama is the clear favorite in the election.  I told my classes this week that the Dolphins have as good a chance of winning the Superbowl as Romney does winning the election.  If you're not convinced consider all either candidate needs to win is 270 votes and there are 15 states left that aren't on my LOCK status.  Now I know I'm not an expert so I may be way off base but a red delicious is almost certainly RED. 

Moving on to the other 15 states that aren't 99% locked up.  First let's do some PROBABLE Obama.  Massachusetts should go his way but they did elect Romney as governor in 2003.  But after noticing Romney's popularity was good through '05 it dropped by the end of his tenure in '07.  Another New England state that should go Obama's way is New Hampshire.  Out of all the Patriot states NH was the closest to McCain in '08 but I doubt enough voters there are dissatisfied with Obama.  How about PROBABLE Romney?  Well Nebraska has a strong Republican tradition so Romney should get most of the 5 votes.  Notice I say most because Nebraska is one of the few states that will actually split their votes.  In '08 Obama received one compared to four to McCain.  Also, Montana should give their 3 votes to Romney although Obama received good support in '08 somewhat surprisingly to me.  Must be due to all the CA immigrants wanting more space up north.

PROBABLES	Obama	Romney
Massachusetts	11
Montana		3
Nebraska		5
New Hampshire	4

In case you aren't doing the math at home let me update you after those four states.  Obama 246 Romney 159.  So now Obama is definitely within striking distance considering Florida is still on the board with 29 votes.  Oh boy.  Let's save the Orange Bowl state for another paragraph though because it will no doubt be very close.  So if we've done our LOCKS and PROBABLES what about the other 11?  How about we call some ADVANTAGE states.  Let me give you an example.  Nevada fits this criteria for Obama.  They've gone back and forth over the last 5 elections but in '08 voted for Obama and they've gained an electoral vote for the upcoming election.  Now that means their population has increased and clearly the Demos do great in states with high populations.  While Nevada isn't high compared to other states the highly populated regions of the state love Obama.  Therefore Nevada is an ADVANTAGE state for Obama.  Another one is New Mexico.  Now the President is up to 257 votes.  Clearly the favorite. 

But as Lee Corso has stated in the past...not so fast!  Here's why.  North Carolina and Indiana have traditionally been Republican dominated but went to Obama in '08...BARELY.  Therefore I would have to say they are ADVANTAGE states for Romney.  Now Romney's up to 185.  But more good news on the way in Missouri where McCain actually squeaked by Obama in '08 so that's ten more votes for Romney and another ADVANTAGE state.  Another would be Arizona which voted for McCain in '08 but that was his home state.  Now I do believe this state could be close but has to be an ADVANTAGE Romney state.  Romney 206 Obama 257.

ADVANTAGES	Obama	Romney
Arizona		11
Indiana		11
Missouri		10
Nevada	6
New Mexico	5
North Carolina		15

That leaves us 5 states or what I'm calling TOSS UP states:  Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.  I believe these five states will determine the election.  Obviously Romney must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa.  That's a lot to ask but not impossible.  Let me explain why.  Let's start with the lowest voting states and work our way up.  Iowa went 54% Obama in '08 but went with GWBush in '04.  Then there is Colorado which gave Obama 54% in '08 but voted three straight times for Republicans before.  How about Virginia?  They gave Obama 52.6% in '08 but voted Republican the prior 5 elections and probably more but I only went back to 1988.  Next up Ohio who voted Obama 51.5% in '08 but voted twice for GW but twice also for Clinton.  Interesting state.  Definitely tough to figure out but apparently they like re-electing their President...except for the older Bush of course in '92.  Uhhggg.  Finally, Florida.  Without Florida Romney loses, period.  I hope you've realized that by now.  Remember without this state in 2000 our President would've been Al Gore.  And it came down to a Supreme Court decision.  Obama received 51% of the vote in '08 while GW carried it twice and surprisingly so did his father.  Do you see the possibilities?  It's crazy to think but the Dolphins have been playing much better lately winning their last three games and losing the prior 2 in OT.  What's up Miami?  And isn't it fitting that Miami is in Florida?  Maybe Mitt should see about attending a game.  If Mitt can win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado but drop Iowa he would win 275-263.  Unbelievable.  Go Dolphins...I guess.     

TOSS UPS	Obama	Romney
Colorado		9
Florida		29
Iowa	6
Ohio		18
Virginia		13
TOTAL	263	275