Fantasy Football

-          Since I am competing against many of my readers it is foolish to give away too many likes/dislikes I have concerning the upcoming season.  And I know there are plenty of projections out there to look at.  All I’m going to do is give you some items that stood out to me about NFL players as I was preparing for my fantasy drafts and studying statistics.

1.       Cam Newton and Michael Vick:  Last season Newton had an amazing rookie season with 4,000 yards passing, 700 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, and 14 rushing TDs.  In Vick’s 9 year career here are his highs in the same categories…3,300 yards passing, 1,000 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, and 9 rushing TDs.  Pretty interesting considering they are similar type QBs.  I don’t know if this means Cam is going to have a monster career or if Vick has been highly overrated.

2.       While passing attempts in the NFL are going up as is yardage I don’t expect a similar passing TD trend.  Last year Brees had 46, Rodgers 45, Stafford 41, and Brady 39.  All very nice and many are predicting all 4 to be in the 40s again.  Not so fast my friend.  First, consider that since 1999 there have been only 3 QBs to have 40+ TD seasons before last year.  So I guess you could say that last season was a flash of what’s to come but I don’t think so.  While TDs have stayed consistently in the 30s as a high, attempts and yards have always been climbing.  Second, while each one of those QBs is predicted to throw 40+ TDs it’s interesting to find out that their skill players projections for receiving TDs don’t add up to 40+. 

3.       Drew Brees:  since joining the Saints, Brees has thrown over 600 passes in 4 of the 6 seasons.  To put that in perspective all 4 of those seasons are in the top ten all-time for most passing attempts in a single season.  In other words Brees is a beast when it comes to throwing the ball.  I have to wonder if he will wear out much like RBs seem to.  And get this, the two seasons Brees has been in the 500s for attempts the Saints went to at least the NFC Championship game.  The other 4 years not true.

4.       Tony Romo:  in six seasons as the starter Romo hasn’t started all 16 games in any even numbered calendar year.  Not a great sign for 2012, but also not very concrete info.  Also, Romo has to be one of the most erratic QBs I looked at.  Most guys show steady improvement in completion %.  Romo has been anywhere from 61-69.5% in six seasons and he was 65% six seasons ago.

5.       Mark Sanchez:  I found some statistics on Mark that I think are interesting.  Not that they are good, but Sanchez’s passing yards, passing TDs, and completion % have gone up in each of his 3 seasons.  There’s definite improvement there even though the stats aren’t excellent.  And here’s the kicker.  In his first two seasons he ran for 3 TDs apiece.  Last year…six rushing TDs.  In case you’re wondering that’s pretty high.  In comes Tim Tebow?

6.       Randall Cunningham:  No he’s not making a comeback, but as I was researching I found that Randall was sacked 72 times in one season.  That’s crazy!  It is interesting to know that typically running QBs do get sacked more than traditional pocket passers.

7.       Running Backs:  There is no doubt that RBs are seeing fewer attempts overtime.  The top 10 single season rushing attempts were put in at 2006 or before.  In fact MJD led the league in attempts last year at 364 which sounds like a lot but ranks 64^th all-time.  Consequently rushing yards are not going up either.  In 2009 Chris Johnson went over 2,000 yards, which is a ton and 6^th all-time.  But, last year’s leader MJD ranks 48^th and 2010 leader Foster ranks 45^th. 

8.       Chris Johnson:  Can you or I count on him?  If you look at his stats he’s on the decline at the age of 27.  Granted, he did have an amazing season in 2009 and last year was in a contract dispute until the beginning of the season.  But he did get paid and failed to live up to his check.  Over the last 3 seasons his attempts, yards, TDs, long run, and yards/attempt all are declining.  So he’s either going to bounce back or prove to be finished.

9.       Jamaal Charles:  Yes, he’s coming off an ACL injury.  But here are a couple stats that you may be interested in.  His yards per attempt for his career are this…5.3, 5.9, 6.4, and 6.9.  Now last season doesn’t really count because he only had 12 carries.  But the 6.4 year he had 230 carries.  Now I’m sure he’s not going above 7 yards a carry this year, but even if he goes for a career low of 5 that’s pretty darn good. 

10.   Carolina RBs:  How many RBs does Carolina need?  Goodness!  They have the best running QB in the league, signed a RB last year who led the league in TDs at one point, signed another this year who in the past has had back to back double digit TD seasons, and if that wasn’t enough decided to import another from San Diego who has 19 rush TDs the last two seasons.  Counting on any of these guys to score like they have in the past is dangerous.

11.   Falcon WRs:  This seems obvious but I really like Roddy White and Julio Jones.  Throw Gonzalez in there, who didn’t drop off last year, and Matt Ryan has nice tools to work with.  White and Jones are going to be the Boldin/Fitzgerald or Harrison/Wayne combo from old.  I’d be surprised if both didn’t end up with double digit TDs.

12.   Percy Harvin:  I know this guy plays for the Vikings, but I think he could have a nice year.  He caught 87 passes last year, ran the ball 50 times, and scored on a kickoff return.  Multidimensional.  While he isn’t Calvin Johnson he has gets the ball in a variety of ways.

13.   Jordy Nelson:  15 receiving TDs last year.  You have to really wonder if he can duplicate.  Of course people say no.  But, you still want to give Rodgers 45 TDs like last year.  Who makes up that slack?  Maybe Randall Cobb?  Personally, as stated before, I just drop Rodgers down to above average instead of record area.

-          Well there are 13 notes to Fink About.  Not much I know, but can’t give too much away.  Happy Fantasy Drafts!

Finally! Mariner Bliss!

-          Thanks to ESPN.com and Directv I caught and recorded the last 4 outs of Felix Hernandez’s perfect game Wednesday.  As I watched him do what only 22 other pitchers have done in MLB history a few thoughts came to my mind.  First, what a day for Mariner fans.  Not that I’m a huge Mariner fan, but if they were playing anyone I’d root for the Mariners.  So I’m a “small” fan.  And let me tell you it is difficult to even be a “small” fan.  Since 2001 the Mariners have been horrible.  Okay, to be fair in 2002 and 2003 they were actually pretty good.  And in 2007 the team was doing really well but Mike Hargrove decided to part ways mid-season and again all fans, even “small” ones were disappointed.  That’s 11 straight seasons without playoffs!  It’s sad when the “small” fans like me browse the MLB standings looking to see how far from last place in all of baseball the M’s are.  So watching the end of a perfect game by Felix, the only one in Mariner’s history, was basically like watching the M’s win the World Series.  If they don’t win another game all season, who cares?  In fact those of us that are “small” fans don’t watch right now anyway and we won’t start.  Let’s just soak up the greatness of the perfect game.  Another thought rolling through my mind as Felix was mobbed was thinking about him individually.  The guy was heralded a dominator from the get-go.  And even though it seems like sometimes he should do more, he hasn’t disappointed.  I mean what can he do?  He pitches for the Mariners!!!  Felix has won 57% of his games since joining the M’s in ‘05.  At the foul line that’s no good, but in baseball it’s better than decent and when you are playing for the cellar dweller continually 57% is Grand Coulee Dam good!  Forgive me if I get a little riled up tonight, I stunk it up at city league softball and I don’t know how to spell riled.  Since 2005 the M’s have won a surprising 45% of their games so Felix is 12% above his team’s winning %.  Case closed.  And lastly, I couldn’t help but think only a few weeks back I was actually “finking” the M’s may need to part ways and hit the jackpot with a blockbuster trade.  See, this is why I’m not a “die-hard” and now you may never “fink” again because you’re probably thinking “traitor!”  A “die-hard” would never consider letting King Felix go.  Plus when the M’s trade they get guys like D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar.  Seriously???  Who the H-E-double is that?  So the season is lost and the future isn’t bright but at least we can always remember the day King Felix, with those gold king K signs in the backdrop, pitching a perfect game.  Even the “small” fans of us.        

NBA and USA men's basketball

So I know this is a little more frequent than you're used to, but that's good.  Gotta get some posts in before school starts.  And that's soon!  So if you're a basketball fan at all, here you go.  If not, read for the pleasure of my fantastic writing or simply click the X of your current tab. 

Topic 1:  Dwight Howard Trade

-          First of all, the timing of the trade was horrible.  I wanted all 12 USA players concentrating on the gold medal not the NBA.  Even though Durant said he didn't care about the trade I can't help thinking that it was on his mind although he ended up playing just fine.  Second, the NBA now has 2 star power, Yankee like, teams.  I don't add OKC in the mix because all their stars were via the draft.  At least the Lakers and Heat are in separate conferences so we can potentially see a Finals showdown between the NBA version of Dream Teams.  Third, I still don't understand why the NBA disallowed Chris Paul to join the Lakers but is okay with Dwight Howard.  Kobe playing alongside a center is much more effective then playing along a point guard.  And finally, I would not pick the Lakers to win the Finals next season right now.  Even with Howard and Nash, L.A. has its work cut out against the Western Conference and most likely the Heat.  Other than Howard, all the other guys are winding their careers down while the Heat are in their prime and OKC is on the upswing.  Fink About It and tell me the Lakers chances.

Topic 2:  Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Game vs Spain

 

-          Tyler, Zach, Kim, and Jackie are my witnesses…I predicted a close game and got one.  With all due respect to the other competing teams, Spain had the only legitimate chance to knock off USA basketball.  The weakness on team USA was obvious in the post and that's where Spain was at its best.  LeBron defended a 4 or 5 the entire game very well, Chandler and Love did okay, and even Carmelo got down/dirty a bit to help inside.  The Spanish guards played well in the first half but Kobe, Paul, and even Durant were much better perimeter defenders after half. The game time was earlier than it had been for team USA which was a concern.  It was like one of those March Madness games that begins at 11am and is prime for an upset special.  But, the USA managed to play somewhat uptempo and ultimately ran Spain out of gas.  Plus with Durant on your team it’s awful tough to lose.  The guy is a beast when it comes to putting points on the board.  And of course, LeBron was a constant and the closer.

Topic 3: Coach K

       

-          When Coach K took over as the USA basketball coach our international recent record was horrible by American standards.  At the 2002 World Championships we didn’t even play for a medal.  At the 2004 Olympics a bronze medal was our accomplishment.  Then USA basketball made Coach K the man.  In 6-7 years he coached the team to a 62-1 record.  A bronze medal in the 2006 World Championships was the only blemish.  However, 3 gold medals since then has firmly put USA basketball back at the top of the basketball world.  What impresses me most about Coach K is how he coached this team the last 3 international competitions.  Team USA played in your face man defense similar to what ACC competition has faced the last 30 years.  His philosophy didn’t change one bit.  He only took 12 players on each team but held tryouts everytime thus cutting NBA players that weren’t quite good enough to make the team.  Imagine cutting an NBA player!  Then he played the best players every game, not feeding anyones ego but building a team.  NBA players sat and watched their teammates while they were a DNP due to Coach K’s discretion.  What he’s done is one of the best coaching jobs ever in any sport.  While he was given plenty of talent he still had to use them correctly and not all coaches know how to make that happen.  Thank you Coach K!  Finally, now that Coach K has said he is done with team USA it will be a great challenge to find someone who can keep the program running.  Fink About It and tell me who you think should be the next coach. 

Topic 4:  My Olympic Moment 2012  

-          I know there were better moments.  I know basketball isn’t a classic Olympic sport.  I know there are better stories.  But for me, watching the USA men's basketball team win gold is my favorite 2012 moment.  Seeing the celebration after winning gold gave me the best eeeebeeejeeebeees during the London Games.    Why?  Well it’s simple really.  Besides being an avid basketball fan there was no other team or athlete, at least from the USA, with more pressure or higher expectations than what Americans have for USA basketball.  Gold isn’t good enough.  Winning every game is the expectation, period.  If Phelps doesn’t win gold every event then people still say, “he had a great career anyways.”  If Bolt doesn’t win gold, some Americans are probably pleased.  If the women’s basketball team wouldn’t have won there would have been many displeased Americans but they would’ve received much more grace than the men.  I can hear it now…”they’re overpaid, cry-babies, selfish, undisciplined, can’t shoot, and definitely not the teams we’ve once had.”  That’s what would’ve been said if the 2012 wouldn’t have won gold so to watch them do it with all that pressure was very gratifying for me.  Congrats Team USA and continue to match the high standard set for you! 

Buffet of Topics

First post too long, second post too short.  Let's see if I can figure the portion size out for number 3.  After considering a number of topics I've decided it's best to go with a few this week.

Topic 1:  Olympic Medal Count

Leaders

Total

1		United States	39	25	26	90
2		China	37	24	19	80
3		Great Britain	25	13	14	52
4		Russia	12	21	23	56
5		Korea	12	7	6	25

- Do you care how many medals each country has?  Apparently some people do because on every sports website the Olympic Medal Standings pop up.  Yet I haven't seen any articles about it.  The medal standings is one of those things we want to see but not discuss.  You know the type I'm talking about don't you?  Well anyways here's the deal with the medal count.  Currently, the USA has taken possession of first place.  And you know what???  They should!  Not because of my patriotism do I make this statement, but because of shear numbers.  The USA has 534 athletes competing in the games.  China...379.  In fact, Great Britain/ N. Ireland has the most athletes at 557 so really they should be a top the leaderboard.  Now this is somewhat misleading as obviously not all athletes compete individually.  And China does have more than a billion (seriously) people than the USA, but still, you the see the numbers competing.  GO USA.  Keep it up! 

Topic 2:  PGA Golf Tournament

- The final major of the year is here and the main topic is Tiger Woods.  Can he win another major?  Do you want him to win another major?  Will he break the record?  He's 5 away from Jack Nicklaus' major record of 18 wins, but hasn't won since 2008.  Honestly, I have no preference either way.  If he does then it probably makes him the greatest golfer of all-time.  If he doesn't he still is one of the greatest.  Sports hasn't had a more dominating athlete in the last 20 years.  I will say one thing he may have going for him.  If Ernie Els can win the Open Championship Woods should be able to win again also.  Els is old, so is Woods.

Topic 3:  Penn State Vacated Wins

- I find it very interesting some former Penn State players are wanting to appeal the NCAA's decision to vacate Penn State Football victories.  I like the idea.  I don't see why a coach's record can't be separate from the team's.  If Paterno's wins need to be vacated then strip him.  But why punish all the innocent players?  Did what Sandusky have going on really impact wins?  In fact Paterno's record probably would've been better if he wouldn't have been concerned with an assistant molesting kids.  That's if Paterno really knew anyways.  I doubt the NCAA will separate Paterno's record from Penn State's but they should consider it...or at least Fink About It.