Sunday, March 23, 2014

Top Ten NFL Single Season Defenses


#10  2000 Tennessee Titans

  • Out of all my top 10 teams this would be the one most open to scrutiny.  So I better make a good case for them finishing 10th.  The Case:  First, the Titans nearly gave up 1300 yards less than the NFL average that season.  That was the 2nd highest difference of any team I researched.  And let's be honest there are a lot of ways to measure a great defense but certainly total yards would have to be in the top 3.  Second, their difference to the league average in total touchdowns and overall points given up both ranked in the top half of my final 16 teams.  In fact the Titans only allowed 17 TD's in a 16 game regular season.  And while the year 2000 wasn't the most dominant era for NFL offenses it was no longer the 1970s as well.  Third, consider that the Titans led the league in yards allowed and yards per play in 2000 even though one of the other greatest defenses all-time (Ravens) were their competition.  Fourth, the Titans had 2 regular season shutouts, pretty average for the best teams but higher than some on the list, and scored 5 TDs on defense during the season tying for 2nd out of the final 16.  And lastly consider the Titans only playoff game that season.  It was versus the eventual Superbowl champ Ravens. Surprisingly to me, Baltimore came into the game with the NFL's 14th highest scoring team. Tennessee's defense gave up ten points (11 less than the Ravens average), six first downs, 134 yards, and accumulated 3 sacks.  Six first downs???  That's pretty good people!  Their team lost because the Ravens defense and special teams both scored TDs.
  • Samari Rolle was the only All-Pro on the 2000 Titans defense.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Unfortunately for the 2000 Titans defense their team did lose that playoff game.  So while their stats were awesome comparing them to teams playing 3 playoff games is somewhat skewed.  But, above any other reason the Titans aren't higher on my list is their deficiency to create turnovers.  Their 30 takeaways was actually just under the league average.  And to top it off they could not turnover the Baltimore offense in that one playoff game.  It may be the difference between the 2000 Titans being viewed as a top 5 defense all-time instead of the Ravens which scored off a turnover that day. 



#9  1972 Miami Dolphins

  • The Case:  The "No-Name" defense, as they were called, generated 15 more turnovers than the league average ranking 4th out of my final 16.  Only one other defense from the 1970s forced more TO's per game than this group.  In a 14 game season they posted 3 shutouts and led the league in points and yards allowed.  In the postseason they forced 10 turnovers in 3 games and only allowed 3 TDs.  Also in the playoffs the "No-Name" defense gave up 14.5 ppg less than the scoring average of teams they played including a shutout in the Superbowl.  However, the Redskins did score on a special teams blunder that defensive players are still perturbed about.  Maybe most impressive though is the fact that the '72 Dolphins are the only undefeated team during this time frame.  Considering that defense ruled supreme in the '70s it is obvious that the "No-Name" defense was the backbone of arguably the greatest team ever. 
  • After having his field goal attempt blocked kicker Garo Yepremian attempted to make a pass that slipped out of his hands.  It was picked up by the Redskins and returned for a TD negating the defense's attempt at a Superbowl shutout.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Other than their impressive turnover numbers the '72 Dolphins statistics compared to the league average are lower than most on my final list of 16.  They gave up 4.3 yards per play which in 1972 isn't very good compared to the best.  Also, there are at least four or five teams from the '70s that have better per game averages in TDs and yards allowed.  And finally, while they weren't giving up many TDs the '72 Dolphins did allow a considerable amount of first downs and yards in the playoffs.       



#8  2008 Pittsburgh Steelers

  • The Case:  The number one reason why this version of the Steelers is in the top ten is simple.  In 2008 they gave up 1,440 yards less than the NFL average.  That is #1 of any team I researched.  In fact it is over 140 yards higher than the 2nd team on my final list of 16 teams.  Not only did they dominate their peers in this category they also dominated the rest of the list in total yards given up.  Their 237 yards per game is better than the great '75 and '78 Superbowl champion Steel Curtain defenses.  That's pretty impressive!!  Obviously then their yards per play was outstanding too.  At only 3.9 it is better than any defense in my top ten outside of the '70s.  They were a full 1.4 less than the league average which of course is highest of any team in my final 16.  In 2008 they also led the league in TDs and scoring against.  Additionally in the playoffs the 2008 Steelers scored two TDs which is tied for third among my final 16.
  • Troy Polamalu was one of two Steelers defenders to be named an All-Pro.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Compared to league averages, in the regular season their TDs and scoring allowed are mediocre among my final 16 teams.  Also, their turnovers per game was only 4.2 higher than the league average.  But the biggest reason this defense isn't higher has to do with the postseason.  They're near the bottom of my final 16 in first downs, yards, points allowed, and TDs given up.  In fact, in 3 playoff games the 2008 Steelers gave up 8 TDs.  That may not sound too bad, but when you're comparing it to the greatest defenses of all time it's just not in the top tier.  In their 3 playoff games they held their opponents to an average of 6.4 ppg under their average.  But, that was 14th out of my final 16 teams. 


#7  1971 Baltimore Colts  
  • The Case:  Like the 2000 Titans some of you football enthusiasts may be wondering where in the world did the '71 Colts come from.  Well since they didn't win the Superbowl I didn't really notice them at first.  But the more I started digging on this group the more I found that impressed me.  For starters, they only gave up 10 points per game and 203 yards per game.  Both ranked 2nd out of my top 16 teams.  But, more significantly, the '71 Colts also rank in the top 7 in both ppg and yards pg when comparing them to the league average that season.  So in other words this isn't just a great defense because they played in the '70s.  In fact, the '71 Colts defense is the best from the '70s in comparison to the league average in both points and yards per game.  Also, the Colts had 3 All-Pros on defense in 1971 and recorded 3 shutouts in a 14 game season.  In their two postseason games they ranked in the upper half of my final 16 in each statistical category.  Their defense allowed 13 ppg less than their opponents had been scoring during the season including their loss to Miami.
  • At 6'7" DE Bubba Smith was an imposing presence and an All-Pro for the '71 Colts.
  • Why Not Higher?:  The turnovers forced and TDs against for the '71 Colts are not as impressive compared to the other great teams on this list in either a per game or comparison to the league average perspective.  They only forced 4.5 more turnovers and allowed only 10.8 TDs fewer than the average '71 team.  The latter stat ranked 15th out of my final 16 teams.  The Colts also only led the league in 2 out of my 5 major stat categories.  While they were good in the postseason the highest they ever appeared was 3rd in any of my statistical categories.  That's pretty knit-picky but we are getting down to the nitty-gritty!  But, the main reason the '71 Colts aren't higher is because they did not win the Superbowl.  The same is true for our next team...             


#6  1970 Minnesota Vikings
  • The Case for the Purple People Eaters:  Well... where do I start?  For one thing the '70 Vikings led the NFL in yards per game, yards per play, touchdowns allowed, points allowed, and turnovers per game.  There's only one other team that I know of during this span of years to do the same and you'll read about them later.  Next, they scored 5 TDs themselves that season which is tied for 2nd of any team on my final 16.  In yards per game, yards per play, and TDs per game there is no better team in my final 16 than the '70 Vikings.  Their 3.4 yards per play and 200.2 yards per game are phenomenal but most impressive is the fact they allowed less than 1 TD per game that season.  They are the only team on my list to achieve that feat.  Compared to league averages the '70 Vikings rank 1st among '70s teams in yards per play and TDs allowed.  In their only postseason game the defense forced 3 turnovers and scored a TD.  Vikings fans can certainly claim that this defense is the best of the '70s and possibly all-time.
  • Hall of Fame defensive linemen Carl Eller #81 and Alan Page #88 were All-Pros in 1970.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Out of my final 16 these Vikings rank 6th in turnovers per game which is the worst of their per game averages.  Compared to the league averages they are middle of the pack in the turnovers and scoring categories in my final 16.  But, of course, the biggest reason the '70 Vikings aren't higher is because they didn't win the Superbowl.  In fact they only played one playoff game losing 17-14 to the 49ers.  In that game they gave up 2 TDs and 289 yards while only recording one sack.  While those numbers don't sound horrible consider that giving up 2 TDs per game in the playoffs ranks 11th out of my final 16 teams.  Incredible!  If the '70 Vikings would've won the Superbowl this defense would be in contention for #1.   


#5  1974 Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Wow, a member of the Steel Curtain's highest finish is 5th on the list???  Please don't let Jack Lambert or "Mean" Joe Greene read this.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Steel Curtain of the '70s is the greatest defensive dynasty all-time as they have appeared in my top 14 three different times.  But, remember this is a single season competition.
  • The Case:  This was the coming out year for the Steel Curtain so to speak because it culminated in their first Superbowl victory.  They had 3 All-Pros, scored 3 defensive TDs, posted two shutouts, and led the league in 3 out of my 5 statistical categories.  They gave up 3.6 yards per play and just under 220 yards per game.  Both stats were top 3 in my list of final 16 teams.  The '74 Steelers also forced 47 turnovers in a 14 game season which ranks 2nd per game out of my final 16.  Their numbers compared to the league average aren't as impressive but were still top 5 in yards per play and turnovers.  In the playoffs the '74 Steelers were top 6 or better out of my final 16 in five of the seven categories I researched.  Most impressively they gave up 3 total TDs, 220 yards per game, and forced 9 turnovers in the postseason.  In each playoff contest they gave up fewer points to their opponents than they were averaging including 22 points less to the Vikings in the Superbowl.  In fact the defense shutout the Vikings offense but a blocked punt returned for a touchdown resulted in six points for the Vikings team.  In the Superbowl the Steelers D also scored 2 points on a safety when Dwight White sacked Fran Tarkenton in the end zone. 
  • Thanks to this safety the Steel Curtain outscored Minnesota's offense in Superbowl IX.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Despite holding teams to few yards the '74 Steelers did allow more points (13.5 per game) and more TDs (21) than most on my final list of 16.  They only allowed 7.5 fewer TDs and 65.5 fewer points than the league average.  Both were dead last on my final list of 16.  In the playoffs they didn't score and only recorded 2 sacks in 3 games.  And in their first playoff game versus the Bills they only gave up 5 points fewer than Buffalo's average.   
     


#4  2013 Seattle Seahawks
  •  My whole curiosity with this list came with this year's Superbowl champs.  I wanted to know where they stood against the greatest defenses all-time and from all my research I can safely say...VERY GOOD!  I'm putting them at 4th.  Some may have them higher (5th and up), while Seahawks fans would certainly have them lower (3rd-1st).  Either way the 2013 Seahawks did have one of the greatest single season's ever.
  • The Case:  Other than the '70 Vikings this Seattle team is the only NFL team since the merger to lead the league in yards allowed, yards per play, touchdowns and points allowed, and turnovers forced.  They also had 4 defensive TDs, 2 All-Pros, and 1 shutout.  Against the league average was where this team really shined.  In each of my five statistical categories the Seahawks ranked 3rd-6th of my final 16 teams in comparisons to the league averages.  Most impressively out of those would be that the Hawks gave up 1 yard per play less and 17.9 TDs less than the league averages.  In the playoffs the Seahawks three opponents averaged 16.4 points less per game than their season averages.  This ranked 3rd out of my final 16 teams.  Of course the most dominant performance came versus Denver in the Superbowl where the Broncos were held to 29.9 points less than their season average.  That number is the highest of any team versus an opponent in my final 16.  And yes, the QB of that Broncos team was Peyton Manning who some consider the greatest QB all time and the Broncos offense as a whole was record setting.  So the 2013 Seahawks defensive performance in the Superbowl was all the more impressive. 
  • This play by Richard Sherman will forever live in Seahawks lore.
  • Why Not Higher?:  As good as the Seahawks were against the NFL average they were equally low in per game stats.  When I say low what I mean is compared to other great teams on this list.  But, considering 2013 was a record setting year in offensive yards and touchdowns what can we really expect from the '13 Hawks?  Is it fair to even use the per game stats?  Well you'll have to decide for yourself but for me I said yes mainly because it is another way to measure Seattle against teams from a similar era such as the '08 Steelers, '02 Bucs, and '00 Ravens.  But in realizing that per game stats were very much skewed I added the comparison to the league average (which by the way I don't think is a perfect model either because it favors teams within the last 20 years).  However, because I do think comparisons to the league average are more valuable, when I ranked the teams those stats were weighted more heavily than the per game stats.  What I'm searching for here is some balance! Let's move on though to the postseason.  Despite Seattle's incredible postseason run their stats did have some flaws.  Except for defensive TDs Seattle ranked in the bottom half of my final 16 teams in playoff stats.  Most noticeably to me was only 4 sacks in 3 games and allowing an average of 341 yards per game.  In the regular season the Hawks only gave up 273.63 yards per game.  Ultimately the Seahawks aren't 1-3 in my ranking because the teams filling those spots have better data.  But, we're talking about the top 3 single seasons from 1970-2013!  It's not a bad thing to come in 4th.       


#3  2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • The Case:  Let me just start with a slogan that Jon Gruden told his Bucs in '02.  "Bring the Juice!!... and if you don't got any juice, Fake the Juice!"  That puts them in the top ten automatically.  Seriously though why are the Bucs in the top 3??  First, they led the NFL in 4/5 of my chosen categories, posted 2 shutouts, had 3 All-Pros, and scored 5 TDs in the regular season.  Next, despite being a team from the last 20 years the Bucs TDs allowed per game ranked 7th in my final 16 ahead of the '85 Bears, '08 Steelers, and '13 Seahawks.  In comparison to league averages the '02 Bucs ranked 2nd in points and TDs allowed while coming in 3rd in yards allowed and yards per play.  In the postseason the Bucs forced 13 turnovers an average of 4.333 per game which is #1 of any team in my final 16.  Also, they only allowed 3 TDs total, recorded 11 sacks, and scored 4 TDs on defense.  The last stat was 1st of any team on my list and 3 of those TDs came in the Superbowl in which the Bucs D outscored the Raiders offense (for the entire postseason the Bucs had more TDs on defense than their opponents did on offense).  In the playoffs the Bucs held opponents to 15.3 points less than their season averages (4th on my list).  Their last two opponents, Philly and Oakland, were ranked 4th and 2nd in scoring throughout the regular season.
  • In '02 LB Derrick Brooks had 7 INTs and returned 4 for TDs including the playoffs.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Honestly, it's a question I'm asking myself right now.  As you must have noticed they were absolutely dominant throughout the entire season.  But, here are a few areas that the '02 Bucs were deficient in terms of the greatest ever.  The two teams ranked 1 and 2 along with the Seahawks for that matter all held at least one playoff opponent 20+ points under their season average.  The Bucs highest margin was 16.9.  Much like the Seahawks, the Bucs per game totals aren't great compared to the very best.  But, again, their era has much to do with that.  Compared to the league average their turnover stat during the regular season wasn't that great ranking 10th with only 9 more than the NFL norm.  In the playoffs the '02 Bucs gave up 269.7 yards per game compared to 252.75 during the season.  But finally, and mostly why the Bucs come in 3rd is because their data isn't as good overall as the 2000 Ravens and they can't compare to the mystique (look it up) of the next team on my list.  


#2  1985 Chicago Bears
  • Sacrilege (disrespectful) correct!!???  Well before you click the X in the upper right hand corner let me present The Case (digging myself into a deeper hole):  'Da Bears absolutely dominated the postseason!!!  That is the number one thing they have going for themselves.  Out of my seven postseason stats the Bears rank 1st-4th in each.  Absolute dominance.  The most impressive is the fact that their three opponents averaged 3.3 points per game (two were shutout completely).  Equally unbelievable the Bears registered 16 sacks in 3 games.  They also only gave up 144.7 yards per game, forced 10 turnovers total, scored 2 TDs themselves, and only gave up 1 TD.  That's right, the '85 Bears also scored more TDs than their opponents in the playoffs (as did the next team on my list).  Their opponents in the playoffs averaged 19.6 less points than the regular season (2nd on my list).  In short, if this was all about the playoffs the '85 Bears would be #1 easily.  In the regular season, they led the NFL in 3 of my categories, posted 2 shutouts, had 3 All-Pros, and scored 5 TDs.  The '85 Bears also recovered 54 turnovers or 3.38 per game ranking 1st of any team (including the '70s) on my final 16.  Compared to the NFL average the Bears rank 3rd in points allowed and turnovers on my final list of 16.  
  • The architect of the '85 Bears D was coordinator Buddy Ryan who was carried off the field after winning the Superbowl.
  • Why Not Higher?:  During the regular season the '86 Bears were better than the '85 Bears.  But more importantly to this list so were the 2000 Ravens.  In points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and TDs per game during the regular season the Ravens were better than the Bears.  And consider that the Ravens were playing 15 years later.  In comparison to the NFL average the Ravens stats are better than the Bears in all five categories...even turnovers.  There's no doubt which team had the better regular season.  But, which season is more important...regular or playoffs?  That's a debate which could go one forever but I think both are important.  Without a great regular season a team won't even be considered on this list.  And without a great postseason a team certainly won't be in the top ten.  The bottom line with the '85 Bears is if all you did was look at the regular season stats they would finish near 10th.  But, when you add the playoffs they instantly take a giant leap.  It's kind of like walking on the moon.  However, the next team on my list was equally dominant in both "seasons."                 

#1  2000 Baltimore Ravens
  • The Case:  I know, I know, this better be good.  Trust me it's not a tough sell.  And let me just say I have no bias toward the 2000 Ravens whatsoever.  In fact, all I can remember about them that year is that I absolutely wanted them to lose.  I was tired of "how good their defense is" and rooted vehemently for the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.  Of course to no avail.  Frankly, for me they were boring to watch because there was no scoring!!!  So let's get into it.  First, the 2000 Ravens had 4 shutouts.  The '76 Steelers had 5 but no other team in my final 16 teams recorded 3!  In per game averages (remember they favor teams from long ago) the Ravens gave up 10.31 points per game which ranks 4th out of my final 16.  Their yards per game is lower than my 2nd-4th teams on this list.  Their turnovers per game is better than any team since 2000.  And finally their TDs allowed per game is tied for 2nd out of my final 16 teams with an average of 1 per game.  Let me repeat that last stat...the 2000 Ravens allowed 16 TDs in a 16 game season.  The 2000 Ravens allowed 1143 yards and 17.8 TDs less than the league average both of which rank at least 6th on my final list.  But, they are #1 of any team in scoring per game and turnovers forced.  The Ravens forced 18.9 more turnovers than the league average while the Bears number was 15.8 and the Seahawks 13.6.  The Ravens allowed 165.8 points less than the NFL average.  The next best team on my list was the Bucs at 150.8 then the Bears at 146.5, and at 4th the Seahawks with 143.5.  While the '85 Bears were most dominant in the playoffs the Ravens were not far behind.  While allowing just under 248 yards per game in the regular season the Ravens dropped that number to 209 yards per game for the playoffs.  They forced 12 turnovers in 4 games so 3 per game.  They also averaged 3.5 sacks per game and scored 2 defensive TDs.  But, most impressively in the postseason was how the Ravens limited the opposition in points and TDs.  They gave up 1 TD in 4 games!!!  Holy smokes people.  Their opponents averaged 5.8 points per game and that includes a special teams TD that the Giants scored.  Now while they didn't go up against Peyton Manning the 2000 Ravens did play the 2nd (Broncos) and 3rd (Raiders) best scoring teams in the playoffs.  They held Denver to 27.3 and Oakland to 26.9 points under their season averages.  Include the 20.5 versus the Giants and that's 3 playoff opponents that the Ravens held to at least 20 less points than their season averages.  Include their game versus Tennessee and the average for their playoff opponents is 21.6 points under their averages the lowest of any team on my list and the best in NFL history from 1970-2013.  The bottom line is that the 2000 Ravens are my #1 because they dominated in both seasons to a greater extent than any other team.  
  • No team has ever been shutout in the Superbowl but it wasn't the fault of the Ravens D as this lone Giants TD was scored on a kickoff return.
  • Why Not Higher?:  Wait, that's impossible.  One is the best!  Why write any more??  But seriously, if you were to pick out the "bad" in the 2000 Ravens here are a couple items.  First, they only had 1 All-Pro and scored 1 TD during the regular season.  They also only led the league in 3 out of the 5 categories (Tennessee led the league in the other 2).  Compared to the league averages the Bucs and Seahawks both had better numbers than the Ravens in yards allowed, yards per play, and TDs allowed.  Although the margins were small.  And finally, the '85 Bears did win 6 out of the 7 playoff categories head to head with the Ravens including over 60 yards less per game.      

So there it is...my list of the NFL's greatest single season defenses ever.  And certainly this year's Seahawks are well deserving of a top ten place.  Hopefully you enjoyed the research no matter if you agree or not.  And if you are to ever argue any team's place in history I encourage you to use my info free of charge!  

Kieth
               

Monday, March 10, 2014

Best NFL Single Season Defenses Part 2

          I left you with my top 20 at the end of part 1.  That was a difficult list to cap considering so many teams have had great defenses from 1970-2013.  But I didn't make those decisions without hours of researching the data.  Now I know the data can't tell everything I'm also considering the many hours of NFL Network I've watched on some of these great teams.  If there are a few omissions to my top 20 that I'm surprised about here they are:
  • 1986 or 1990 Giants:  with Lawrence Taylor on your team it's surprising they aren't in the top 20.  I spent tons of time on both of these defenses but when it came right down to it they just weren't among the very best.
  • Orange Crush or Doomsday defenses of the 70s:  the "Crush" never really rose to the top as there was so much competition while the '71 and '77 Cowboys were considered at length.  Both were better in the postseason but neither could crack the top 20 due to their mediocre (in terms of the greatest) regular seasons.  
  • more teams from the early '90s:  as you saw from the graphs for some reason the early '90s was not the greatest offensive show since the merger.  Many offensive stats dropped but no one defense stood out among the rest.  The closest was the...
#20 1991 Eagles
  • The Case:  had an impressive 1359.6 total yards less than the NFL average, had 15.8 more turnovers than the league average, and yards per play was 1.1 less than the league average all of which are very high compared to the greatest defenses all time; included 3 All-Pro defensive lineman which is incredible considering there are only 4 spots on the team!!
  • Why Not Higher?:  TD's and overall points allowed versus league averages were mediocre; per game averages were really not that impressive considering how league averages were at a lull during the early '90s; and finally, the '91 Eagles didn't make the postseason.  While that isn't all the defenses fault I didn't have any postseason data to use when making my final comparisons.
#19 1977 Falcons
  • The Case:  unbelievably gave up only 9.2 points per game the lowest of any team I researched and their other per game stats were all very low compared to the greatest all-time.  Additionally, their offense was down right disgusting.  They lost one game 0-3.  Are you kidding me?  
  • Why Not Higher?:  they played in the '70s so while their stats are great... compared to their peers in 1977 the differences aren't as high as others on my list.  Also, their team failed to reach the postseason.  I hate leaving them out of the top ten but how am I supposed to compare them to the greatest??  I feel real bad for this defense because their offense was so putrid that the team only won 7 games.  But I feel good about putting them in the top 20 because I doubt many of you knew about the 1977 Falcons.
DB Roland Lawrence was the only All-Pro for the '77 Falcons D

#18 1975 Rams
  • The Case:  gave up 9.6 points per game and compared to the league average was over 150 points difference both of which are near the top for any team I researched.  Their TDs given up per game and compared to the league average were also in the top tier.  
  • Why Not Higher?:  even though they did make the playoffs their defense suddenly looked like a team from 2013.  After only giving up over 300 yards once during the regular season they did it in both playoff games including 441 yards to the Cowboys at home.  And by the way their coach was Chuck Knox.
#17 2009 Jets
  • The Case:  led the league in pts, yards, yds per play, and tds per game.  Compared to the league average their yards per game and yards per play are near the top of my lists of the greatest ever.  
  • Why Not Higher?:  their turnovers were pedestrian and their scoring per game compared to their peers wasn't that great in the grand scheme of things.  Plus in the playoffs they did just enough to win 2 games but allowed two TDs in each of their playoff wins and a few more in their loss.     
#16 1988 Vikings
  • The Case:  led the league in yards allowed, yards per play, tds allowed, and turnovers.  Their 53 turnovers compared to the league average and per game all-time are two of the highest I researched.  Plus their defense scored 7 TDs in the regular season and included 3 All-Pro players.  
  • Why Not Higher?:  in the postseason they rank near the bottom of all my criteria among the final 16 teams on this list.  They did defeat the Rams but then were obliterated by San Francisco's treat of Montana to Rice three times and allowed an 80 yard TD run by Roger, I was never the fastest RB, Craig.
#15 1996 Packers
  • The Case:  led the league in yards, yds per play, and scoring.  In the postseason they actually boosted their potential in the rankings especially in the turnover dept. gathering 12 in three games which is 2nd out of my final 16 teams.  They also only allowed 235 yds per game in the postseason which ranks in the upper half of my final 16.
  • Why Not Higher?:  they're the only team in my final 16 to not record a shutout in the regular season.  They rank in the bottom half of my final 16 in each category when compared to the league averages in '96.  But, after this research I do have a greater appreciation for the '96 Packers as a whole.  They were a very good team considering the common fan would think their offense was the team's strength.
SS LeRoy Butler was the only All-Pro on the '96 Packers despite Reggie White upfront

 #14 1975 Steelers
  • The Case:  stepped it up in the postseason averaging nearly 5 sacks and 4 turnovers per game both near the top of the final 16.  Plus they played 3 top ten offenses in the playoffs and yet the average difference between what they allowed versus what their opponent had done during the regular season was over 14 ppg.  Their defense also included 3 All-Pros and Joe Greene wasn't one of them but he was playing!
  • Why Not Higher?:  frankly without the postseason the '75 Steelers might not be in the top 20.  They didn't lead the league in any of the five major categories but you have to remember the Rams were very good that year.  Their comparisons to the league average are all in the bottom half of my final 16. 
 #13 1986 Bears
  • The Case:  out of all the teams I researched the '86 Bears, a year after winning the Superbowl, were at the top of my list in terms of touchdowns allowed versus the league average.  The difference was over 19 TDs.  The '86 Bears only gave up one touchdown per game that season.  Additionally, their overall scoring average was 141 points higher than the league average which was near the top of my list.  The '86 Bears were the league leader in 4 out of my 5 key categories as well. 
  • Why Not Higher?:  pretty simple...they fell flat on their face in their one and only playoff game.  At home to the Redskins, the '86 Bears gave up over 300 yards and 3 TDs in their biggest game all season.  The result was much different than the year before.  Should one playoff game make such a big difference?  Well that's a debate that could go on forever but one thing is for sure in sports.  The best, and I mean the very best, are defined by how much they win in the postseason.  Like it or not it is the truth.
#12 1973 Dolphins
  • The Case:  this team did win the Superbowl, in fact they repeated.  But that's a team accomplishment.  How about their individual defensive stats?  One, they only gave up 3.7 yards per play (3rd highest on my final 16 list).  Two, they gave up 15 TDs in a 14 game season.  And most impressively, numero trece they only gave up 2 TDs in 3 playoff games.  That's just filthy.
  • Though not intimidating now FS Dick Anderson was an All-Pro for the '73 Dolphins
  • Why Not Higher:  well they played in the '70s.  Therefore their great per game averages don't stack up as well to the competition when comparing their stats to the '73 NFL averages.  The stat that stands out the most is turnovers.  The '73 Dolphins averaged over 2 per game but compared to the NFL average they were actually -5 for the season.  Even though this team did win the Superbowl the '73 Dolphins only forced 4 turnovers in 3 postseason games.

#11 1976 Steelers
  • The Case:  let me just start by saying this might be the greatest single regular season ever by a Steelers D.  I'll start with the big ammo.  In 14 games the '76 Steelers shutout 5, count 'em, five opponents.  That's the most of any team in my top 16.  Can you imagine??  Five shutouts.  Boy Bradshaw and the O must have been A-maze-ing.  They also allowed under 10 points per game, 1 TD per game, and over 3 turnovers per game.  Also, in two postseason games the '76 Steelers gave up an average of 195 yards per game.  
  • Why Not Higher:  knit-picking but out of my final 16 teams the '76 Steelers are the only team without a regular season TD.  That was a stat that carried over to their two postseason games also.  And in those two playoff games they gave up five TDs.  They had only allowed 14 all season!  In their playoff loss to the Raiders they didn't generate one turnover and the offense only had one.  So it's not as if they were put in horrible situations over and over again.  It just wasn't their day.
Well that's 20-11.  So the teams we have left are the following in chronological order:   
  • 1970 Vikings
  • 1971 Colts
  • 1972 Dolphins
  • 1974 Steelers
  • 1985 Bears
  • 2000 Ravens
  • 2000 Titans
  • 2002 Buccaneers
  • 2008 Steelers
  • 2013 Seahawks
Hope everyone is enjoying.  Comments are encouraged!  The top ten will be coming...

Kieth

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Where the Seahawks 2013 Defense ranks all-time

          I know some of you reading aren't excited about the all-time ranks because it is impossible to know exactly who is the best.  But, I can't help it.  I love thinking about the all-time greats and with the Seahawks impressive run to a Lombardi Trophy I've been kicking around the topic of where the 2013 Seahawks D ranks compared to the other greats.  Immediately after the Superbowl ESPN.com polled Americans to see where the 2013 Seahawks ranked compared to the 1985 Bears and 2000 Ravens (those were the only 3 on the list).  I voted for Seattle considering what they had just done to Denver's high powered offense and found out that most of America did as well.  So ever since the topic has been on my mind.
          Let me say this too.  For you Seahawks fans I'm not trying to undermine what their team or defense has done.  In fact it's the opposite.  For them to be considered among the greats all-time is a testament to their current dominance.  I'm simply curious where their dominant year ranks up against the best all time.  And keep this in mind too.  I'm not simply exploring Superbowl performances.  So while Seattle's drubbing of Denver may be the best Superbowl performance of all time (debatable), this list is considering the entire season.  Also, I'm not considering a dynasty or set of years.  After all, I can definitely see Seattle winning more Superbowls with this defensive group but that's yet to be seen.  And while the Steelers defenses of the '70s were amazing I'm only considering each on a year to year basis.
          At the outset of my research I was only exploring Superbowl winning teams.  I went back and forth on whether the best defense had to be on the best team.  I discussed the topic with a few and started exploring the greatest defenses all-time regardless of winning the Superbowl.  After I did it was obvious I would have to consider some defenses despite their team not hoisting the Lombardi.  So in a nutshell any team can make the list.
          Another criteria was deciding what year I would start researching.  At first I was going through all the Superbowl years (1966 and on...).  But, before 1970 the NFL and AFL were two separate leagues.  Therefore the 1969 Chiefs, who had an awesome defense, only played the other nine AFL teams during the regular season and playoffs before the Superbowl.  Not too much competition is the big problem there.  But, I am disappointed I can't include the '69 Chiefs, '66 Packers, and '69 Vikings on my list because they all were awesome before the merger.  In fact the '69 Vikings were absolutely nasty.
          While I've chosen numerous statistics to base my judgement of the greatest single season defenses of all-time it should be noted that there are a number of variables I can't take into account.  For instance, defensive scoring average is one of the stats I'm using but if the defense takes over on its own ten yard line than giving up at least a field goal is expected.  Also, any points that the opposition scores, even if it wasn't against the defense, is considered in their "defensive" scoring average.  So the Seahawks may have given up a "pick 6" this year and that goes against their scoring average.  Another variable to consider is how penalties have changed the game.  In 1978, for the first time, defensive backs could only bump the receivers for the first five yards (Mel Blount rule).  In the last 20 years besides pass interference another penalty was added called "illegal contact."  And how can we ignore the fact that within the last 20 years QBs do not take near the hits they use to.  Finally, before 1978, the regular season was only 14 games instead of 16.  For most stats I can manipulate the data to at least limit the discrepancy of this last variable.  But, see what I mean about variables??  However, I will not be deterred!
          Here is a breakdown of the statistics I did use:
- scoring average against (discrepancies pointed out above)
- touchdowns against (I used this to counteract the previous issues...veteran move)
- yards allowed (this one has some hidden variables too because the NFL average has increased over time)
- yards per play (maybe too similar to the previous but I used it)
- turnovers (defenses today collect fewer than those 30-40 years ago)
- touchdowns (how many times the defense actually put it in the end zone)
- shutouts (the opponent didn't score at all)
- all-pro defensive players (all-pro team is the best of the NFL at season's end)
- league leader in core statistics (bonuses awarded to teams leading NFL in above stats)
           Now for the stats above highlighted in orange I broke those up into two separate spreadsheets.  One was for per game averages throughout the regular season.  So for example the 2013 Seahawks gave up 231 points averaging out to 14.4 ppg.  What I quickly found was that the best per game averages were from the 1970s.  Defense dominated the game then.  On average the defenses of the '70s gave up fewer points and yards while also creating more turnovers than any other era.  But as I'm sure you're thinking the game was different then mainly because of rules (penalties...or the lack thereof.)  But, I couldn't completely ignore these stats because some of the numbers are very impressive!  Plus, there were a few teams to elevate themselves out of their era and rise amongst the '70s teams.  That should be noted.
           But, I also developed another way to see how dominant defenses were over the years with the core statistics.  For each stat and team I figured out the difference between the teams total and the league average that particular year.  For example, the Seahawks had 39 turnovers this season.  The league average was 25.4.  So the Seahawks TO difference to the league average was a positive 13.6.  The more I used this idea the more I liked it.  It definitely expels the discrepancies of the average per game because now teams are compared only to their peers of that season.  The one thing I noticed though that caused minor concern was the 1970's defenses had less difference to their peers than other eras.  I think the reason for this is that today there is a bigger difference between the best and worst defenses and the numbers show that.  Whereas in the 1970s there were a lot of teams with good defenses, at least statistically.  It's probably kind of like offenses are today.  Some teams appear real good offensively (Lions) but are they really?  The bottom line here is comparing teams to their peers was a fantastic idea so the results were weighted heavier than the per game results. 
           Finally, I also took into account postseason statistics.  The aforementioned stats were all regular season.  Unfortunately, I only did per game postseason stats so again there are some variables to consider because how the game has changed.  But for that reason and a couple others I did not weigh postseason stats as much as the previous comparison to their peers in the regular season. The stats I used for the postseason were:
- first downs allowed
- total yards allowed
- turnovers forced
- touchdowns allowed
- scoring against
- defensive touchdowns
- sacks
          There was an additional postseason statistic I used as well.  I took a look at each opponent that the eligible team faced.  I took the opponent's scoring average during the regular season and then found the difference in what the eligible dominant defense allowed.  For example the Seahawks held Denver to 8 points compared to their 37.9 scoring average in the regular season.  I did that for each team for each postseason game they played and then averaged out the differences to one number since not all teams played an equal amount of games.  Also, in this stat only, I did not consider points given up in ways outside of the defense.  For example the 2000 Ravens defense did not allow any points versus the Giants in the Superbowl but a kickoff return gave the Giants 7 points.  Those 7 points were not used against the Ravens D.
          Here are a few graphs I thought you might like to see that demonstrate how much the league has changed over the years.  Again, because of these numbers, per game averages aren't solely an effective way in analyzing the greatest defenses of all-time.  That's why I went with the league average comparisons and weighted them more heavily.









            Now this is a lot of info to digest so rather than reveal my rankings now I think I'll create a part 2 page and leave some suspense hanging.  But, to not leave you completely high and dry I'll reveal my top 20 teams in chronological order (Superbowl winning teams are highlighted):

1970 Vikings
1971 Colts
1972 Dolphins
1973 Dolphins
1974 Steelers
1975 Steelers
1975 Rams
1976 Steelers
1977 Falcons
1985 Bears
1986 Bears
1988 Vikings
1991 Eagles
1996 Packers
2000 Ravens
2000 Titans
2002 Buccaneers
2008 Steelers
2009 Jets
2013 Seahawks

            I did want to share a couple amazing statistics I found about teams not on this list as I researched.  1) The 1999 Rams D scored 8 TDs in the regular season.  2) The 1977 Cowboys D created 19 turnovers in three playoff games en route to the Lombardi.  That stat alone had them on the cusp of my list.  To be continued...

Kieth